This analysis is based on the latest spot prices, average difference indicators, and quotes from major manufacturers, providing a professional assessment of the short-term price trend for phthalic anhydride in China: The current average difference combination indicates that the market is in a volatile and bearish range, with prices at a high level over the past year. The upside potential is limited, and in the short term, the market may mainly experience a mild adjustment. Market participants should pay close attention to the price fluctuations of upstream OX and refined naphthalene, as well as the demand and purchasing pace in downstream unsaturated resins and other fields.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 29, 2026 | Value as of September 28, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 0 | 0 | Flat |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -70 | -100 | + (up from yesterday) |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -67.5 | -28.33 | - (down from yesterday) |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three differences in direction are not completely consistent, indicating a rebound (bearish) signal in a volatile market trend in China.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
Phthalic anhydride's short-term price trend is oscillating with a bearish bias. Reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences have not moved in the same direction, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus it is judged as an oscillating trend; among them, the 20-day average difference has dropped significantly, while only the 10-day average difference has slightly rebounded, indicating a clear bearish attribute, with a strong downward adjustment momentum in the short term.
4. Spatial Reference
Phthalic anhydride prices are at a medium-high level in the 60-day cycle, and at a high level in both the 3-month and 1-year cycles. The upward potential has been significantly compressed, and the probability of a downward correction is much higher than that of further increases.
V. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
VI. Fundamental Reference for the Physical Market
On September 24, the quotations of phthalic anhydride from major manufacturers in China generally decreased: Shijiazhuang Bailong Chemical quoted 10,000 CNY/ton for phthalic anhydride, with a decline in the quotation and a concurrent weakening in the actual transaction price; Changzhou Xinyang quoted 10,000 CNY/ton for phthalic anhydride, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton from the previous quotation, with limited orders accepted, and the actual transaction price also dropped.
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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