October 22nd, according to reports
Recently, the Chinese PVC spot market has been following the futures market and moving upward with fluctuations. Manufacturers such as Shandong Xinfax and Shandong Lutai have successively raised their ex-factory quotes. Dealers in major consumption areas like Zibo and Linyi have increased their quotes by 30-50 CNY/ton for three consecutive days. The market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and overall trading performance is average. The current mean difference indicator shows that the PVC price is in a rebound phase of fluctuation (slightly bearish). In the short term, the 60-day cycle price is at a high level, with limited upward momentum. In the long term, the 1-year cycle price is at a medium to low level, still offering some room for further increases.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Type of Average Difference | Today’s Value (2026.10.21) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.10.20) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 79.2 | 111.0 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 30.4 | 3.5 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | -12.8 | -12.25 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (-, +, -), which align with the rebound (bearish) signal in the oscillation range in China.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the change in direction of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day is not entirely consistent, not meeting the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, and thus it is determined to be an oscillating trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle: Prices are at a high level, with limited short-term upside;
3-month cycle: Prices are at high levels, with significant resistance to further short-term gains.
1 year cycle: The price is at a moderate to low level, and there is still some room for long-term growth.
Five, the trend chart of the past 1 year in China
VI. Latest Fundamental Developments
Production end: On October 21, 2026, the Shandong Xinfax PVC plant was operating at 80% capacity, with the ex-factory price for calcium carbide SG-5 grade increased by 50 yuan to 4,920 CNY/ton (cash). The Shandong Lutai PVC facility is gradually resuming operations, with the ex-factory price for calcium carbide SG-5 grade raised by 30 yuan to 4,980 CNY/ton (cash). The China Salt Inner Mongolia PVC plant is running at full capacity, with the calcium carbide method SG-5 grade quoted at 4,720 CNY/ton (acceptance).
Downstream: On October 21, 2026, in the Zibo region, the mainstream quotation for calcium carbide‑based Type 5 PVC was RMB 4,980–5,040 per ton, up RMB 30–50 per ton from the previous day; in the Linyi region, the mainstream quotation stood at RMB 4,990–5,060 per ton, also up RMB 30–50 per ton. Market sentiment remains cautious, and trading activity is moderate.
At the import and export level, China’s imports of primary-form plastics in early September totaled 1.82 million tons, down 15.4% year on year.
VII. Risk Disclosure
The latest available data is up to October 21, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
