October 16th, according to reports
According to the commodity market analysis system, from October 8 to 16, the price of BDO in China increased from 10,233 CNY/ton to 10,316 CNY/ton, rising by 0.81% within the period, up 16.46% month-over-month, and up 38.19% year-over-year.
Support on both the supply and demand sides remains in China’s BDO market, with suppliers continuing to hold firm. However, methanol prices have been fluctuating downward, weakening cost‑side support. Moreover, some production units are expected to restart, while downstream players are adopting a wait-and-see stance and showing resistance to higher prices. As the interplay between supply and demand intensifies, the market’s center of gravity is experiencing only limited movement.
Supply side, in terms of facilities, Wanhua, Jianfeng, and Guotai Xinhua have successively replaced agents in one of their plants, slightly reducing the supply. Additionally, transportation in the Xinjiang region remains slow, with high prices at auctions, supporting the sentiment of inventory holders to maintain market prices. The BDO supply side is influenced by favorable factors.
Statistics on the operating status of equipment at selected production enterprises:
| Region | Unit Status |
|---|---|
| Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe | Unit 1 shut down on August 27, 2024. Units 2 and 3 operating at 70–80% load. |
| Xinjiang Meike | Unit 3 offline; Units 1, 2, 4, and 5 running steadily. |
| Inner Mongolia Sanwei | 300,000 t/a BDO unit currently operating at approximately 70–80% load. |
| Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua | One unit running steadily; the other undergoing catalyst replacement starting October 13, with an estimated turnaround of 15 days. |
| Xinjiang Xinye | Units operating steadily. |
| Ningxia Wuheng Chemical | Operating relatively steadily. |
| Sichuan Tianhua | 100,000 t/a unit undergoing catalyst replacement on October 8, scheduled to restart on October 15. |
Cost Side: On the calcium carbide front, supply remains highly volatile; earlier‑restarted production units have gradually ramped up capacity, driving a noticeable rise in calcium carbide prices. Meanwhile, methanol prices have remained firm. With both raw material prices—calcium carbide and methanol—on the uptick, BDO costs are supported by favorable cost‑driving factors.
Demand Side: In downstream sectors, there is no significant increase in demand, and market participants are becoming more cautious and bearish about the future, focusing mainly on inventory digestion or following up on contract orders. Currently, many downstream industries in China are experiencing profit losses, leading to low enthusiasm for spot purchases. The demand side for BDO is influenced by negative factors.
Market Outlook: With an increase in supply and a decline in the operations of downstream PTMEG and PBT, demand is expected to decrease. Overall, BDO analysts predict that the BDO market in China will mainly undergo consolidation.
