October 26th, according to news from China,
As of October 25, 2026, the spot price of urea in China has remained stable overall. According to quantitative analysis using the mean difference method, the current price is in a state of oscillation and retracement (with a bullish bias). In the medium to short term, the price is in the middle to lower range, with strong support against declines. The following is a detailed analysis:
I. Table of Finite Differences
Note: The latest available data is up to October 25, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
| Mean Difference Indicator | (2026.10.21) | (2026.10.20) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -3 | -4 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 3.25 | 4.25 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -12.75 | -15 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (+, -, +), corresponding to a retrace (bullish) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current urea price trend is fluctuating (with a bullish bias). The rationale for this judgment is that the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for a fluctuating trend. The bullish bias indicates that the probability of the price moving upward is higher than it moving downward.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Over the 60-day and 3-month periods, prices are in the second tier (mid-to-low range), with limited downside and strong support below.
1 year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (median), with a relatively balanced overall fluctuation space, and there is some room for upward recovery.
V. Industry and Manufacturer Updates
Plant Update: On October 21, 2026, Huajin Group’s Aksu Huajin fertilizer production unit achieved 500 consecutive days of safe operation, setting a new record for the longest uninterrupted run in the past 20 years since commissioning. Current daily urea output has risen to over 2,100 tons, while natural gas consumption per ton of product has reached an all-time low.
Manufacturer's quote:
October 22, 2026: Hualu Hengsheng’s ex‑factory quotation for granular urea is RMB 1,725 per ton, with prices remaining stable and actual transactions subject to negotiation.
October 21, 2026: Shandong Ruixing Chemical’s ex‑factory urea price is RMB 1,720 per ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.
October 20, 2026: Hualu Hengsheng’s ex‑factory price for granular urea is RMB 1,725 per ton, up RMB 20 per ton from the previous quote, with actual transactions negotiated on a case‑by‑case basis.
Six, Reference of Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain in China
Upstream raw materials: anthracite, liquid ammonia, liquefied natural gas
Downstream demand: compound fertilizers, urea-formaldehyde resins, melamine, wheat, corn, early indica rice, late indica rice, etc.
VII. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
