November 2nd News
[Key Viewpoint] Ethanol prices are currently in a corrective rebound phase amid bearish volatility. In the short term, they are clearly underpinned by tightening supply, while also facing downward pressure from elevated cyclical levels. Overall, prices are likely to trade in a narrow range at high levels, with limited upside potential.
The latest available data is up to November 1, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Type of Mean Difference | Value on 2026.11.01 | Value on 2026.10.31 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 0.00 | 2.67 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 7.55 | 7.11 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 38.03 | 40.66 | - |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (-, +, -), which belong to a pullback (bearish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is oscillating (with a bearish bias), reasons: the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for an oscillating trend, and the signal is of a rebound type with a bearish bias; fundamentally, multiple ethanol plants in China are undergoing maintenance, and the increase in demand from Southeast Asia is diverting import supplies, leading to a temporary contraction in available supply in China, which provides some support to prices. However, there is no strong incremental benefit in downstream demand, lacking the momentum for further increases, resulting in a generally bearish short-term outlook.
4. Positional Space Reference
The 60-day and 3-month cycle prices of ethanol are at the 5th level (high position) out of 5 levels, while the 1-year cycle price is at the 4th level (mid-high position) out of 5 levels. The short-term upside is limited, but there is support from supply contraction, which also limits the downside.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
