MTBE Market Trends: First Rise, Then Fall

April 3rd, according to news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from March 27 to April 3, the price of MTBE first rose and then fell from 7,420 CNY/ton to 7,330 CNY/ton. During this period, the price decreased by 1.21%, up 36.59% month-over-month, and up 28.61% year-over-year. The Chinese MTBE market first rose and then fell; at the beginning of the week, it was boosted by a significant rise in international crude oil prices, and manufacturers actively pushed for higher prices. However, after the price increase, terminal demand did not follow up sufficiently, and trading gradually became quieter. In the latter half of the week, manufacturers focused on selling with discounts. The inventory level of terminal gasoline was high, and buyers' purchasing enthusiasm was low. MTBE manufacturers continued to offer discounts to sell, and the transaction focus further declined.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices have shown mixed movements. The primary factors driving these fluctuations are as follows: Although the U.S. and Iran have expressed willingness to discuss a ceasefire, the U.S.-Iran conflict remains unresolved, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted. Coupled with production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, risks to crude oil supply continue to intensify. As expectations of easing tensions interplay with actual disruptions in supply, oil prices have exhibited mixed trends. As of April 2, the settlement price for the June Brent crude oil futures contract stood at $109.03 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream side, international crude oil futures showed mixed performance, while refined oil prices saw gasoline prices declining and diesel prices rising. Among them, gasoline prices weakened due to sluggish demand, prompting refineries to slash prices and launch promotional sales. Meanwhile, diesel prices remained relatively firm; mid- and downstream traders, after depleting their inventories, became cautious about placing new orders, resulting in market transactions predominantly featuring diesel. The demand for MTBE was weighed down by bearish factors.

Supply side: With shutdowns at Maoming Shihua, Dechen Energy, and Fujian Shengtong facilities, and with some manufacturers reducing their facility utilization rates, the supply of resources may decrease. This presents a positive factor for MTBE supply in China.

As of April 3, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:

As of the close on April 2, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up $71.51 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $1,081.72 to $1,083.72 per ton. The European MTBE market closed at a price that was up $79 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $1,197.99 to $1,198.49 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed at a price that was up $89.11 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $1,258.34 to $1,258.69 per ton (355.30 to 355.40 cents per gallon).

Market Forecast It is expected that international oil prices have room for increase, and a new round of retail price caps for refined oil products in China is anticipated to rise. This positive news will benefit the oil market, and the refined oil market is likely to maintain a strong trend. Additionally, with the Qingming holiday approaching, midstream and downstream merchants will appropriately restock. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market has entered a phase of high-level consolidation.