November 3rd, according to reports
According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, lithium carbonate has continued its weak downward trend. As of November 3, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 93,000 CNY per ton, a 22% decrease from 120,000 CNY per ton in the same period last month, and nearly a 55% drop from the annual high of 200,000 yuan. The rollercoaster market trend continues.
Supply Side: Long-Term Easing Expectations Continue to Weigh on Prices
The supply side is the dominant factor in this round of decline. China's salt lake lithium extraction has entered a seasonal high-production period, with September output increasing by more than 80% year-on-year, and monthly production climbing to around 22,000 tons; the average monthly production of lithium extraction from spodumene remains stable at 63,000 tons, significantly higher than the 42,000 tons of the same period last year. In terms of imports, South American salt lake lithium exports remain high, and Zimbabwean lithium concentrate continues to arrive in large volumes after the export restrictions were lifted, further solidifying the market's judgment of a loose future supply.
Notably, although Jiangxi’s lepidolite production remains constrained by mining‑rights reforms and resumed operations have yet to translate into higher output, the lingering expectation of a restart itself acts as a downward pressure. Following the expiration on October 28 of the environmental impact assessment public notice for the Jianxiawo mine, market expectations for a resumption of production after December have continued to build.
Demand Side: Production Schedules Weaken, Peak Season Falls Short of Expectations
Signs of marginal weakening are emerging on the demand side. According to industry data, battery production schedules in November fell about 5% month-on-month, marking the first monthly decline this year; energy storage production schedules are also showing signs of softening, with October’s month-on-month increase at only around 5.3% and a potential downward revision. With China’s peak–valley price spreads narrowing and policies such as capacity tariffs yet to be fully implemented, the economics of energy storage remain under pressure, leading to slower customer pickup rates.
However, the underlying demand for power batteries remains strong. In September, power battery installations reached approximately 87.2 GWh, a new high for the year, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has approached 50%. The continued increase in battery capacity per vehicle is providing solid support to demand.
Inventory and Costs: Low Inventory Provides a Buffer
Ongoing destocking across the entire supply chain is the primary support for current fundamentals. Social inventories of lithium carbonate have fallen from around 110,000 tons at the start of the year to near 51,000 tons, with cumulative drawdowns exceeding 50%; upstream smelter stocks have dropped to 7,500 tons, the lowest level on record. With prices approaching RMB 90,000 per tonne, non-integrated producers sourcing spodumene face cost inversions, putting some marginal capacity under pressure to cut output; however, salt‑lake operators and integrated players remain profitable, indicating that cost support is not rigid.
Future Trend: Lithium carbonate is currently in a tug-of-war between a "weak reality with tight balance" and a "weak expectation of future looseness." In the short term, with the expectation of future looseness not yet disproven and bearish sentiment still dominating the market, prices are likely to maintain a weak consolidation pattern around the 90,000 CNY per ton level. At the same time, the downward space for lithium prices has gradually narrowed, but a trend reversal will require clear turning point signals from either the fundamentals or the capital market.
