Domestic pork production is expected to decline by 15%.

Because of limited capacity, China's pork price has entered a new bull market. In the first quarter of 2019, the import volume of frozen fresh pork in China was estimated at over 300 thousand tons, far exceeding the previous pig cycle. The industry expects that pork imports will show an explosive growth trend throughout the year. According to the data released by the Chinese Customs, the import volume of pork in January-February this year reached 207,000 tons, which is at a relatively high level.

Yao Guiling, a pig analyst at Guan Tong futures, told the first financial reporter that at present, the domestic swine plague situation is still continuing in Africa. The African swine fever is also spreading in the EU countries. The increase of imported pork is inevitable in the late stage, especially the increase in pork imports in the United States. According to statistics, in 2010, the import volume of frozen meat in China was only 200,000 tons. In 2016, pork prices began a new round of bull market, and the import of frozen pork surged to 1 million 620 thousand tons. In 2017, pork prices continued to fall, and the import of frozen pork dropped to 1 million 217 thousand tons. Currently, China mainly imports pork from the European Union, North America and South America. The main countries are Germany, Canada, Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands and the United States. More than half of China's pork imports come from the European Union. In addition, South America's pork exports to China have increased year by year in the past two years, especially Brazilian pork exports to China. In 2018, Brazilian pork imports increased by 5.7% to 12.7%. It should be noted that the United States is the largest frozen pork country in China before 2014. Because lean meat concentrate is allowed to be used in American pig farming process, Chinese pork in circulation is not allowed to detect lean meat concentrate. Chinese importers turn to import pork from many European countries, especially France, Spain, Denmark and other countries. Spain is the largest importer of pork in China from 2014 to 2018. For two consecutive years from 2017 to 2018, the number of pork exported by the United States to China decreased significantly. In the whole year of 2018, only 95,000 tons of pork were exported by the United States, less than 10% of China's imports in that year.

At present, the proportion of pork imports to domestic pork production is very small, less than 2.5%. In 2016, China imported frozen pork and miscellaneous meat for the first time exceeded 3 million tons, but still accounted for less than 5% of domestic pork supply.

Lin Guofa, research director of Breck Nongxin Group, told First Financial and Economic Journalist that pork import is more an effective supplement to domestic pork supply, and has less impact on domestic pig industry, but it is easy to depress domestic pig prices by importing large quantities in a short time.

Since the outbreak of the African swine plague in China last August, pig has been loosely supplied. The price of pork is relatively low and the total number of imported pork is relatively low. According to statistics, pork imports totaled 1.2 million tons in 2018, a decrease of 55,000 tons compared with the previous year. But by the impact of the African swine fever and the slump in pig prices, China's pig production capacity has become apparent. The industry expects pork production to drop by 15% in 2019, and the annual pork price will reach 25 yuan / kg.

In the 1-2 months of this year, the pork price fell sharply, and the supply of live pigs decreased. In January-February, pork imports also began to increase substantially. Among the countries that imported pork from January to February, the import volume of pork in the United States increased significantly. The proportion of pork imported from the United States rose from 1.7% in December 2018 to 6.3% in February, mainly due to the widening price gap between China and the United States. The number of pork imports from the EU has declined, mainly in Denmark and Holland, which is related to the outbreak of African swine plague in EU countries.

Yao Guiling said that China is a big pig breeding and consumption country. Pig production capacity has dropped significantly, pork gap is relatively large, and there is a great possibility that the pig price will go up in the later stage. However, judging from the total export volume of global pork, the import of international pork is also limited, and the moderating effect on domestic pig price in the latter period is relatively small.

\Lin Guofa also said that at present, China has a significant gap in pork imports in 2019, and the international market is difficult to meet domestic import demand. The price of pork is rising strongly, which makes the supply and demand of pork only achieve equilibrium through price. The price increases squeeze some pork consumption, while the rise of pig prices will drive the prices of other meat and egg milk. The broiler industry is expected to maintain high in 2019. Prosperity and rising meat prices will also push up prices in China in the second and third quarters.