Coal consumption in power industry will be in plateau after peaking in 2020

On May 16, China's total coal consumption control program and policy research project held a symposium on the analysis of China's power development situation in Beijing. At the symposium, the "mid-term assessment and late prospects for coal control in the 13th Five-Year Plan" written by North China Electric Power University (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") was released. Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, electricity consumption has gradually rebounded. In 2018, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 6.84 trillion kWh, an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year, far exceeding expectations. According to the report, such rapid growth in electricity is not sustainable.

The report predicts that in 2020, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach about 7.54 trillion dry watt-hours, and the annual growth rate of electricity consumption during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will be 5.8%. The report estimates that coal consumption in the power industry will reach its peak in 2020, rising from 1.26 billion tons of standard coal in 2018 to 1.32 billion tons of standard coal in combination with other power supply installation and utilization forecast. The figure is higher than that of 1.23 billion tons of standard coal under the 13th Five-Year Plan and 1.29 billion tons of standard coal under the planning scenario of the General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design. Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser to the Natural Resources Conservation Association (NRDC), pointed out that China should strive to control the total installed coal and power plants within 1.1 billion kilowatt-hours so as to avoid the risk of high assets stranding to the greatest extent.

The report considers that the conversion of new and old kinetic energy, the high-quality development of economy and the rapid development of clean energy are conducive to China's power and coal control work in the later period of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Even in the high growth scenario, the coal consumption of the power industry will peak in 2020, and then will be in the plateau stage, with the adjustment of coal-electricity positioning and the slight improvement of power generation efficiency, showing a slow downward trend.

The 13th Five-Year Plan for Electric Power Development put forward that the installed capacity of power generation in China is expected to be 2 billion kilowatts by 2020, with an average annual growth of 5.5%. By the end of 2018, the installed capacity of full-bore power generation in China reached 1.9 billion kilowatts, and the annual growth of installed power generation in the first three years of the 13th Five-Year Plan was 7.6%.

According to the trend of power supply development in recent years, especially the scale of renewable energy production, the report predicts that if the average annual installed speed of 7.6% is maintained in the later period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the installed capacity of national power generation will reach 2.22 billion kilowatts by 2020, which is far higher than the planned target.

From the development of supply capacity in the past two years, the installed power has exceeded the expected target, but due to the cost and delay of the project, the gas and nuclear power have not reached the expected target.

By the end of 2018, 350 million kilowatts of hydropower plants had been installed nationwide, 92.1% of the 13th Five-Year Plan targets had been achieved, and 1.14 billion kilowatts of thermal power plants had been installed, including 1.01 billion kilowatts of coal and electricity, 91.8% of which had been achieved, 83.3 million kilowatts of gas and electricity, and 75.7% of the planning targets had been achieved.

The installed capacity of nuclear power plant is 446.6 million kilowatts, which achieves 77.1% of the planned target; the installed capacity of grid-connected wind power plant is 180 million kilowatts, which achieves 85.7% of the planned target; and the installed capacity of grid-connected solar power plant is 170 million kilowatts, which exceeds 54.6% of the planned target.

According to the 13th Five-Year Plan, the installed capacity of solar energy and wind power will reach 110 million kW and 210 million kW respectively in 2020, while that of gas power and nuclear power will reach 110 million kW and 58 million kW respectively.

The report recommends that the planning objectives of the 13th Five-Year Plan be adjusted appropriately to increase the planned installed capacity of solar and wind power to 270 million kW and 230 million kW, while the planned installed capacity of gas, electricity and nuclear power to 100 million kW and 55 million kW, while the planned installed capacity of other power sources remains unchanged.

In 2018, the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation in total power generation has reached 29.6%.

The report believes that if the problems of abandonment of light, wind and water are further improved in the later period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation is expected to increase to 32-34% in 2020, exceeding the target of 31% in the 13th Five-Year Plan.