The time for coal stockpiling has come, and coal prices rebounded in June.

Since this week, Yulin and Ordos pithead coal price slight callback triggered many speculations in the industry, whether coal prices will fall substantially? Has the pithead market started to cool down? The analysis shows that the current price reduction of high-calorie coal is about 20 yuan, which belongs to the normal fluctuation of the market. The coal market is like a boat going against the water. If it does not advance, it will retreat. After that, the pithead coal price will rebound on the whole line in June.

Firstly, the capacity release of pithead in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has reached the limit. It is estimated that more than 20 coal mines in the fourth batch of Yulin area should be approved for resumption in June, which will not have much impact on the market. Some of the coal mines in Yulin may not be able to resume construction by the end of this year. Small coal mines are basically out of action, and the coal production capacity in Yulin will continue to hover at a low level. It can be imagined from the layman's thinking that Yulin coal is no longer allowed to make mistakes in safe production, otherwise Yulin coal will face the risk of short-term "extinction". Ordos coal sales were stable in May. The Shanmu coal yard of Jurong Group in this area came, and the parking lot was full of coalmines every day, and customer orders were in a steady stream.

Since May, the problems of continuous safety supervision in main producing areas and insufficient coal management tickets still exist. There are regional differences between supply and demand structure and port. The price is relatively strong. The inverted hanging of TRADERS'shipments to port has not been alleviated. The high cost has formed a strong support for coal price in port, and the space for coal price to fall is limited. The daily consumption of the six coastal power plants has recovered slightly, but the inventory remains high and the demand for purchasing and replenishing warehouses is not large. In May, coal prices continued to fluctuate W-shaped, but coal prices rose and fell slightly.

From the spot coal market, the prices of various coal ports and origins are mainly stable in recent years, only the prices of anthracite from origin have been slightly revised back. Looking forward to the latter stage, the overall downstream demand is not bad in the near future, and the supply side remains tight. It is expected that coal prices will continue the current situation of high and medium-level operation. After entering June, the demand of the whole downstream is absolutely increasing. Because of the high coal price before, some customers stop to wait and see, leading to unsaturated purchasing. June will usher in a wave of coal procurement. In addition, many railways have cut bulk freight charges and many coal ports in the north have also lowered contracting costs, creating a good business environment for the coal market. Looking at the international current situation, the coal import policy will continue and will not impact the short-term internal shape of the domestic market.

From the macro point of view, it is difficult for the main coal producing areas to have a large increase, but the actual coal consumption will start to climb, so there is no sharp drop in the current coal price of the producing areas, the industry off-season has passed, and the coal price of the producing areas will run at a high level throughout the year.

Some research institutes believe that in 2019, the growth rate of demand in the downstream of coal is expected to decline slightly, while the supply side will hardly increase under the circumstances of intensified coal mine regulation, clear target of capacity removal in small and medium-sized coal mines, and stricter security supervision. Coal prices are expected to remain high. In the medium and long term, illegal and super-capacity production has been restrained, and the coal price center is difficult to decline.

At present, we should seize the "V" type fluctuation and make a decisive move to save more coal.