Our country's economic ability to resist risks is increasing

On May 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the data on the operation of the national economy in April. Although some economic indicators fluctuated to a certain extent, the national economy remained in a reasonable range, continuing the overall stable, stable and progressive development trend. At a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council, Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that to observe the economic situation, we should not only look at the fluctuations in the next two months, but also judge the overall trend. Generally speaking, China's economy has shown a state of good resilience, sufficient potential and strong vitality, and its ability to cope with external shocks has been increasing.

The steady economic situation remained unchanged. April, and some macroeconomic indicators fluctuated greatly in China. For example, in April, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value fell by 3.1 percentage points compared with last month, the growth rate of service industry production index fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the total retail sales growth rate of social consumer goods fell by 1.5 percentage points.

"If we look at the fluctuation of economic indicators between months for a longer time, it has always been an objective existence." Liu Aihua said that from the comprehensive trend of changes in various indicators, the economic operation has continued to maintain an overall stable, steady and progressive development trend. From the perspective of production demand, the service industry production index in April was the second highest monthly growth rate since September last year. The service industry production index in the first four months was the same as that in the first quarter, indicating that the service industry maintained steady and rapid growth. In addition, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 8% in the first four months, 7.2% in April, which was slower than that in March. This was mainly due to holiday factors, and service consumption continued to grow rapidly.

From the perspective of employment price situation, the unemployment rate of the national urban survey in April was 5.0%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in March. This is the result of the comprehensive efforts of the employment priority policy. In the first four months, 4.59 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and 42% of the annual target was achieved. Meanwhile, CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in April, a mild rise. From the perspective of economic structure, the growth of high-tech manufacturing industry in April was 11.2%, which was 1.2 percentage points faster than that of last month. In the first four months, investment in high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 11.4%, and investment in high-tech service industry increased by 15.5%, which was significantly faster than the growth rate of all investment. In the first four months, the proportion of general trade imports and exports to total imports and exports was 59.8%, which was 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

From the perspective of market confidence, China has implemented a larger-scale tax reduction and fee reduction policy since this year. Under the effect of these policies, the market expectations continue to improve. Among them, the PMI of manufacturing industry is in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the expected index of production and operation activities has remained above 56% for three consecutive months. The business activity index of non-manufacturing industry has maintained a relatively high prosperity, which is above 54% for four consecutive months, and the expected index of business activities has remained above 60%.

Prices are stable and solid

Recently, some people have strong expectations of rising prices of pork, fruits and other foods. In response to a question from the reporter of Economic Daily - China Economic Network, Liu Aihua said that in terms of food, industrial consumer goods and service products, CPI will not rise substantially in the future, and prices will be stable and have a solid foundation. According to Liu Aihua's analysis,

CPI rose by 2.5% in April compared with the same period last month, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the growth rate of individual varieties increased slightly from the same period last month. Apart from pork, fresh vegetables and fruits are also the factors driving the increase of CPI in April. These three types of projects have increased by more than 10% year-on-year in the same month. The impact on the overall CPI is about 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points. "Short-term shocks on fresh vegetables and fruits are not sustained. Pork prices have been declining for 25 months since 2015, and they have only turned positive since last month. This year-on-year increase has a certain recovery. Liu Aihua said that the current production capacity of large-scale pig farming can make up for the shortage and shortage of supply, and achieve a flat pork price. From the price of fresh vegetables and fruits, these two varieties are obviously affected by extreme weather seasonal factors, so the price of fresh vegetables and fruits will not remain at a high level. Food prices have a stable basis.

"The factors that affect inflation include not only food but also industrial consumer goods and services." Liu Aihua said that from the perspective of industrial consumer goods, China's industrial system is relatively complete, the production capacity in many areas is relatively excessive, the supply capacity is sufficient, and the price of industrial consumer goods does not have the basis for a substantial rise. From the perspective of service industry, in recent years, with the vigorous support of government policies, private capital has been continuously entering, and the cultivation and development of service market is relatively fast. It also reflects from the price. Although the growth rate remains relatively high, it is relatively stable. CPI will not rise substantially in the future. 

"Whether from the macroeconomic fundamentals, or from the perspective of enterprises'ability to resist risks, the ability of China's economy to cope with external shocks is constantly increasing." Liu Aihua said. Firstly, it has good toughness. China's economy has a relatively complete industrial system and relatively perfect infrastructure. From the perspective of labor force, talent and manpower reserve, China has nearly 900 million people of working age, and 170 million of them are high-quality talents with higher education or vocational education. Material foundation and talent foundation have laid a solid foundation for sustained, stable and healthy economic development. Since the end of 2015, the structural reform of supply side has promoted the quality change, power change and efficiency change in the field of supply, and provided a lasting and continuous impetus for the future high-quality economic development.