Market fluctuations due to urea? This 'pot' can't be carried back.

In recent days, the chemical fertilizer market has been relatively depressed. The overall price of the main fertilizer species has fallen more or less. The urea price has also been declining because of the temporary imbalance between supply and demand. Recently, the price of the main manufacturer in Shandong Province has dropped to 1890-1930 yuan (ton price, the same below). The price of urea for the compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area ranges from 1930 to 1950 yuan. According to this price, the low-end transaction price of urea in Shandong Province is 187 yuan. About 0 yuan, the mainstream urea factory quoted 1880-1900 yuan in Hebei and 1890-1900 yuan in Henan, while the price of phosphate fertilizer also suffered from weakness. At present, 55% of the low-end ammonium powder factory in Hubei fell below 2000 yuan, 64% of the diammonium transaction reference price was around 2550 yuan, and the market of Potassium chloride was relatively poor. Now 62% of the mainstream urea factory quoted 2050-2080 CNY/ton for white powder and white crystal. The overall performance of Potassium Chloride is still acceptable, with 52% of all water-soluble powder being quoted 3000-3050 yuan. But recently learned from the market, some non-urea people believe that the current downturn is mainly due to the impact of urea price reduction. Although the author has only been in contact with the fertilizer market for a few years, but can not fully agree with the above views, comprehensive industry views summarized several reasons for the current price reduction of various fertilizers for your comments.

Firstly, the downturn of phosphate fertilizer market is mainly due to seasonal restrictions. With the development of recent years, the overall design capacity of ammonium phosphate in China has increased sharply, and the phenomenon of excess capacity supply has become a common phenomenon. Agricultural monoammonium phosphate mainly supplies the production of compound fertilizer and some exports, and the amount of direct application to the land at the grass-roots level is relatively small (you can say that granular monoammonium in mixed fertilizer is directly applied, and I do not follow you). Summer fertilizer belongs to high nitrogen fertilizer, the amount of Monoammonium is relatively small, and the price is not unusual; and the diammonium market is closed in May in the Northeast region. From now on to autumn, fertilizer use is in the off season. In order to ensure their own output, enterprises will export in an appropriate amount, and the export price will be slightly lower than the domestic market according to the usual practice. Even if the international price rises, because of the higher storage requirement of diammonium, the possibility of domestic traders purchasing at this stage is relatively low. In other words, domestic diammonium will not drop its price in the off season. It belongs to the price increase, combined with the above two points, phosphate fertilizer into the summer, due to less demand, the market or will be mainly depressed.

Secondly, the pressure of potash fertilizer sales in Hong Kong still exists. According to China's fertilizer statistics, the total stock of potassium chloride in the port is about 2.75 million tons, 40% higher than the same period last year. The pressure can be imagined. In addition, the demand for potassium chloride in off-season is relatively small. At present, the market of potassium chloride has two weak deliveries. Although there is a reduction in domestic potassium, the seller is not in a hurry to sell due to the small volume of domestic potassium chloride, and the market of potassium chloride is expected to remain stable for some time.

Finally, the price of compound fertilizer is difficult to change because of the "double reduction" of demand and raw materials. In recent years, the early stage of the high nitrogen fertilizer market has been completed. Although there is demand in the later stage, and some areas are affected by drought, the actual demand in the later stage is limited, and the price of many raw materials and fertilizers has a certain trend of price reduction, and the overall price of compound fertilizers is not high. Overall, due to the relatively short period of urea price adjustment, market attention is relatively high, but the fluctuation of the market is not due to the adjustment of urea price, but because the urea price has changed after the adjustment of the market.