China's power coal prices are relatively stable, off-season is not weak

Since May, the power coal futures have maintained a shaky adjustment, with the main 1909 contract falling below 600 yuan per ton of important gateway support, with the latest closing at 602.6 yuan per ton. Despite the recent revision of the futures price of power coal, it is still at a high level.

"The second quarter is generally considered to be the off-season demand for power coal, with the price trend mainly below or flat. The historical data of power coal price index around Bohai Sea in recent years are analyzed. From April to now, there has been a certain decline in 2015 and 2017, which is basically the same in 2016 and 2018. This year's situation is still dominated by a level playing field. In some areas, the price of some kinds of power coal has risen, but the increase is not large. Zhou Jianqi, a researcher at the Enterprise Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview. The data show that the domestic power coal market is mainly stable on May 10. The prices of Yinwan and Weiwei wall in Shaanxi have increased by 10-15 CNY/ton. At present, insufficient capacity release is still the main contradiction of the market. The production situation of coal mines in Shaanxi is relatively unstable, and the price is still supported in the short run. It is expected that the high level will oscillate.

"Historically, the so-called"off season is not weak"in the price of power coal is not uncommon. For example, in 2011, the power coal price index around the Bohai Sea rose 51 CNY/ton in the same period, which was higher than 21 CNY/ton in the whole year. It can be seen that the current price of China's power coal is relatively stable, not'off-season is not weak'. Zhou Jianqi said. From Zhou Jianqi's point of view,

China's power coal price can be stabilized. There are two main factors: first, China's industrial operation is stable as a whole, and the demand does not fluctuate significantly; second, the factor of safety in production, that is, the national special regulation activities for safety in production have reduced the current coal production. Supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price of power coal has remained basically flat since April.