Multi-factors lead to low peak season of coal market

In July, due to more rainwater than usual, the continuous high temperature weather did not open, and residential electricity consumption decreased year-on-year. As of July 3, the daily consumption of the main power plants along the coast of the six major power groups was 656,500 tons, down by 104,000 tons, or 14.40% over the same period last year. Inventory of power plants has remained at a relatively high level. As of July 3, the inventory of power plants was 18.431 million tons, which was 31.829 million tons higher than that of the same period last year, an increase of 20.87%. In addition, this year, many provinces and municipalities in the country carried out intensified air pollution control and renovation, cement, building materials and other coal-consuming enterprises staggered peak production, resulting in a sharp decline in coal consumption, coal demand did not increase significantly in the peak season, and coal prices did not rise as expected.

Origin market, in early July, the peak season of origin was not strong, and coal prices fluctuated narrowly. Affected by a series of incidents, such as safety inspection, environmental protection inspection, management and control of coal management tickets, overhaul of coal-pulling trucks and elimination of evil by the central government, the coal output in the main production area has been limited, but the price has not increased significantly. The main reason is that the overall downstream demand is reduced and the origin-port price hangs upside down, which affects the enthusiasm of customers in shipping. And other factors. Although the major railway bureaus have reduced railway freight rates to increase the enthusiasm of the origin of transport, but the inverted contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. In terms of price, compared with the same period last year, the price of coal in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10-30 CNY/ton, and similar phenomenon also occurred in Shanxi, with a decrease of about 35 CNY/ton. However, the coal price in Shaanxi is greatly affected by the previous mine accidents. Many coal mines are still in a state of shutdown, the supply of goods in the market is tight, and the price of coal has risen considerably. As of June 28, Yulin 6000K reported 426 CNY/ton, up 8 CNY/ton from the same period last year, and 5500K increased 34 CNY/ton from the same period last year.

At present, due to the structural shortage of low-sulfur and high-quality coal, port prices have risen slightly, but the overall market demand has not increased significantly. Coal haulage is general, and the sustainability needs to be observed. (Take Qin Port as an example, 30 anchorage vessels, about 20 less than the same period last year.) At present, the demand of downstream power plants is limited, and most of procurement and haulage are Changxie Coal. Under the macro-control, coal-consuming enterprises may find it difficult to reproduce the explosive situation of centralized haulage of coal.