Are the prices of coal ready to start the 'counter-offensive' of power coal

According to market information, on July 25, Yulin multi-mine raised its price by 5-21 CNY/ton: Hanglaiwan Coal Mine has raised its final coal by 10 CNY/ton since 0:00 on July 26, 2019, and its bid price for blended coal by 21 CNY/ton; its lump coal price by 452 CNY/ton and its face coal price by 459 CNY/ton. Caojiatan Coal Mine Notice: Since July 26, 2019, at 0:00, it has risen by 5 CNY/ton. At the end of July 26, Xiwan Coal Price rose 19 CNY/ton and lump coal 21 CNY/ton. Xiaobaodang Coal Mine temporarily increased by 7 CNY/ton. Mixed coal in Yushuwan Coal Mine rose by 5 yuan per ton. In addition, Yinhe Coal Industry Co., Ltd. successfully bid for lump coal (about 8400 tons) and seed coal (about 3900 tons) in Yulin Coal Trading Market from 15:00 to 15:33 on July 26, 2019. The starting price of lump coal is 465 CNY/ton, the highest transaction price is 486 CNY/ton, up 21 CNY/ton; the starting price of seed coal is 475 CNY/ton, and the highest transaction price is 50 CNY/ton. 5 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton.

It is known that the price increase of raw coal and blended coal in Yulin large-scale mine is mainly due to the increase of downstream demand, and coal stockpiling is active in the coal yard near Yulin. On the one hand, the recent high temperature weather has led to a rebound in coal consumption in power plants; on the other hand, the coke price has increased by 100 CNY/ton, and large steel enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have implemented price increases. On the other hand, the restrictions on imported coal continue to be strengthened, with the impact of activities such as the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China and the "Second Youth League" of Shanxi, a new wave of purchasing upsurge has come downstream. Short-term driving coal prices in production areas to rise again.

Overall, the price of domestic power coal market in some areas increased slightly by the end of the week. Due to the current high coal price, in order to prevent abnormal fluctuation of coal price, the relevant government of Shaanxi Province verbally communicated that advanced mines should speed up the release of production capacity. Now the coal pipe tickets in Yulin area have been relaxed obviously, and the average daily output of a local state-owned coal mine has been restored to about 30,000 tons. In northern ports, with the increase of residential electricity load, daily consumption of six coastal power plants rises to around 800,000 tons, but in the case of high inventory, the support for coal prices is limited. At present, most of the buyers and sellers in the port are on the lookout. The actual volume is scarce and the price is running steadily. The mainstream price of Q5500 and Q5000 is 595 CNY/ton and 515 CNY/ton respectively. Overall judgment

With the high temperature weather in summer, residential electricity load increases, daily consumption of six coastal power plants rises to around 800,000 tons, but it is difficult to form effective support for coastal coal market in the short term under the condition of high inventory level. Under the influence of high temperature weather, the national electricity consumption level continued to rise. On July 22 and 23, the national power generation reached a record high for two consecutive days, reaching a maximum of 2,254 million kWh, an increase of 376 million kWh over last summer's peak. On July 22, Shandong Province's electricity load reached 83.117 million kilowatt, a new peak of 81.653 million kilowatt in 2018, setting a record. On that day, the total electricity consumption in Shandong Province reached 1.749 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 8.66% over the same period of last year. In addition, the electricity load in Hebei, Anhui, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai all exceeded the historical peak last year.

According to the China Meteorological Network, in the next three days, high temperature weather above 35 degrees Celsius will occur in Western Liaoning, central and southern North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan and South China, with the highest temperature above 37 degrees Celsius in parts of southern Hebei, western Huanghuai, Jianghuai and central and Western Jiangnan. In this case, it is expected that the coal consumption of power plants in the later period will be further increased, which will boost the expected replenishment inventory and spot prices.

With the rising temperature, the daily consumption of power plants began to rebound. As of July 26, the daily coal consumption of six coastal power plants climbed to 7995,000 tons, up 22.73% compared with the same period last week. Due to the rapid rise in daily consumption of power plants and the increased enthusiasm of producer traders and coal yard depot replenishment, the prices of some coal mines in Yuyang, Shaanxi Province, which is the main producer today, have increased slightly by 5-21 CNY/ton. However, considering the current demand for coal in chemical, steel, building materials and other industries is still weak, whether the coal price can continue to rise remains to be seen.

Coal prices in northern ports began to stop falling and stabilize, but in the case of high inventory downstream, coal prices rose weakly. At present, most of the buyers and sellers in the port are on the lookout. The actual volume is scarce and the price is running steadily. The mainstream price of Q5500 and Q5000 is 595 CNY/ton and 515 CNY/ton respectively.

Because of the high inventory of the six coastal power plants this year, the turnover of the coastal coal market is low, even during the peak summer season, the coal price is difficult to rise substantially. From the two data of Qinhuangdao coal dispatch volume reflecting demand and the number of anchorage ships, it is obvious that downstream users are not very enthusiastic to send ships northward. < p > < p > From January 1 to July 26, 2019, the average coal outflow from Qinhuangdao Port was 542,600 tons, down 8.64% from the same period last year. Under the low demand of power plants, the active depot strategy was adopted, and the port outflow continued to weaken. With the effective supplement of Changxie Coal and imported coal, the number of anchorage ships in Qinhuangdao Port has declined dramatically. From January 1 to July 26, 2019, the average number of anchorage ships in Qinhuangdao Port was 31, down 50.79% from the same period last year.

It is understood that due to the rising daily consumption of coastal power plants, sellers are expected to increase in the future market, and offer firm or wait for shipment next week. However, some analysis shows that, at present, coal stocks in power plants and ports are on the high side, and coal stocks in pits are relatively low. It is difficult for the inventory structure to determine the trend of power coal prices. In addition, the release of advanced production capacity is significantly higher than expected, the supply side is stable, and the price of Changxie coal in large coal enterprises will be in a green zone under the influence of policy, which is not conducive to the rise of power coal prices. In the later stage of

, with the release of high-quality productivity in the main producing areas