Stable Manufacturing Investment is in the Front

What is the change of stable investment in the second half of this year? A recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (hereinafter referred to as the "meeting") gave the answer.

The second half of the conference's economic work calls for stabilizing manufacturing investment, implementing complementary board projects such as urban old residential area transformation, urban parking lot, urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities construction, and accelerating the construction of new infrastructure such as information network.

"Stabilizing manufacturing investment is in the front, followed by capital construction investment and real estate investment. The change of investment pillar ranking aims at making effective investment, with the emphasis on consolidating stable growth and realizing real economy." Ye Qing, deputy director of Hubei Statistical Bureau, told reporters of the China Times.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 show that the growth rate of capital construction investment is roughly the same as that of last year, with 4.1% in the first half; the growth rate of manufacturing investment is significantly lower than that of last year, with a growth rate of 3% in the first half; only the growth rate of real estate investment is stronger than that of last year; the growth rate of national real estate development investment in the first half is 10.9%, higher than that of last year. The growth rate was 9.5%. On the same day, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council chaired a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on economic situation, pointing out that the "downward pressure" of the domestic economy has increased. One of the major manifestations is that the investment in fixed assets was weak in the first half of the year, and there were worries about the three pillars of investment (infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment and real estate investment). Therefore, Feng Jianlin, chief economist of Fushengde Macroeconomics, told the China Times that the growth rate of manufacturing investment will rebound in the second half of the year and become an important driving force for stable economic growth. Economic data released by the Bureau of Statistics for the first half of the year show that the growth rate of manufacturing investment is 3%, which is down from last year. The data shows that the investment in fixed assets in China increased by 5.8% in the first half of the year, down from 6.3% in the first quarter, similar to 5.9% in the whole year of last year. Among them, real estate investment increased by 10.9% as the main supporting force, infrastructure investment increased by 4.1%, while manufacturing investment increased by only 3%. In the analysis of the reasons, Ye Qing pointed out to our reporter that last year, because of environmental protection factors, reconstruction investment and equipment upgrading in 10-11 years, resulting in a sharp decline in investment in fixed assets reconstruction.

From January to April this year, the growth rate of manufacturing investment continued to decline, with a slight recovery in May and June.

According to statistics from the official website of the NDRC, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 2.5% in January-April compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate fell by 2.1 percentage points compared with the first quarter. In January-May, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 2.7% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with that in January-April. "In the first five months, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has rebounded slightly, but it is still at a relatively low level." Meng Wei, spokesman for the NDRC, said.

Compared with previous years, the growth rate of manufacturing investment in the first half of this year is generally weak. "To stabilize manufacturing investment is to strengthen the real economy." Ye Qing told the China Times that the message of the meeting was that there was no need to pursue excessive investment growth, and stable investment was not focused on real estate or infrastructure investment, but was identified as manufacturing investment because effective investment was more accurate. In fact, some effective measures have been taken by top management to attach great importance to manufacturing investment.

Li Keqiang emphasized at the "Deposition of Regulatory Clothing" meeting on June 25 that under the current downward pressure of the economy, the necessary investment projects should be focused on expanding effective investment around the short-board areas and people's expectations, but more importantly, through the "Deposition of Regulatory Clothing" reform, we should spend less money and not spend money on institutional and other aspects. Soft environment optimization, so that market participants take the initiative to increase investment and promote employment.

"Investment grew steadily in the first quarter of this year, but the growth rate has declined in the last two months. We need to change the way of development, promote economic transformation and upgrading, and we can not rely excessively on investment. And the conference made it clear that the main line of stable investment has become stable manufacturing investment. The greatest advantage is that private enterprises can play a greater role. Ye Qing said. The role of private economy should not be underestimated. "Private economy accommodates 80% of employment, provides 60% of GDP, 50% of tax revenue, and 70% of overseas investment comes from the investment of private enterprises." According to Zhang Yong, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, the areas where private investment is concentrated are mainly manufacturing and real estate, but these two industries are relatively weak at present. Manufacturing industry involves transformation and upgrading, and real estate involves de-inventory and factor land supply. "The next step is to solve the problems of not being able to invest, not willing to invest, not daring to invest and where to invest, and further activate the vitality of private investment." Zhang Yong said.

Upgrading the Quality of Manufacturing Industry

"Promoting the High-quality Development of Manufacturing Industry, Promoting the Deep Integration of Advanced Manufacturing Industry and Modern Service Industry". When the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 13 last year on "Analyzing and Studying the Economic Work of 2019", it was clearly proposed that we should firmly build a strong manufacturing country and promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry. As the first of seven key tasks in 2019. < p > < p > Ye Qing believes that the low growth rate of manufacturing investment is closely related to the insufficient credit support of financial institutions. He noted that the meeting requested that financial institutions should be guided to increase medium- and long-term financing for manufacturing and private enterprises, and to grasp the rhythm and intensity of risk management. In Ye Qing's opinion, the focus of financial institutions'financing support in the second half of this year is to support manufacturing investment vigorously, so as to promote high-quality economic development. The meeting demanded that financial supervision departments should introduce financial support for manufacturing as soon as possible.