Port coal price is about to fall below 580 import restriction policy upgrade

The operation of coal market is weak in domestic power coal market. The latest round-the-Bohai Power Coal Price Index closed at 576 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from the previous period. The index has been slumping for three consecutive weeks. Some insiders believe that this is the result of many underpinnings. Only the upgrading of import restriction policy can restrain the decline. The spot price of 5500 cards in Qinhuangdao Port was 580 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton from the same period last week, while the spot price of 4500 cards in Jingtang Port was 445 CNY/ton, which was the same as the same period last week. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, Typhoon "Lichma" has an impact on the navigation and handling of coastal ships, resulting in inadequate enthusiasm for downstream delivery; secondly, the continuous rainy weather has resulted in a decline in residential electricity demand. From the point of view of the six major power plants along the coast, the average daily coal consumption has fallen to 709,000 tons. Thirdly, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. At present, the coal stocks in power plants and ports are at a high level, and the sentiment of all parties is increasing. Influenced by rainwater weather, the phenomenon of coal "card dropping" in northern ports is serious, and the calorific value of some coal species has declined by about 100-200 calories. It is expected that coal prices in northern ports will continue to decline, with the possibility of falling below 580 CNY/ton being greater. Internationally, the demand of power coal market is insufficient, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, and the price is weak. At present, the spot open warehouse price of Australia's 5500 calorie power coal, which is mainly transported to China, is 51.1 US dollars/ton, a slight drop of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the same period last week. The domestic coking coal market continued to differentiate and adjust its trend in the aspect of coking coal. First, the price of low-sulfur and high-quality coking coal in Shanxi and other parts of the country has risen slightly under the pull of the coke market downstream; second, the demand for blended coking coal is still weak under the background of environmental protection and production restriction, forcing prices to continue to explore. The price of gas-refined coal and 1/3 coking coal in Shandong has fallen by 20-50 CNY/ton this month. On the import of coal, due to exchange rate and customs policy, downstream delivery was more cautious, which led to continued price decline. At present, the domestic CIF price of Australian second-tier coking coal is 159 US dollars/ton, which is 5 US dollars/ton lower than the same period in the previous period.

Downstream and related market operation: The domestic steel market showed a general decline trend, and the decline was expanded. According to the average spot prices of the ten cities tracked, the current price is 8-140 CNY/ton lower than that of the same period last week. At present, the price of Tangshan billet is 3470 CNY/ton, which is 90 CNY/ton lower than the same period last week. The main reasons are as follows: First, driven by the continued weakening of the futures market, the main contract for threaded steel now closes at 3677 CNY/ton, down 76 CNY/ton from the same period last week, down 430 CNY/ton from the peak in early July, down by 2.03% and 10.47% respectively; second, due to the impact of environmental protection and thunderstorms, the demand for steel market is still insufficient. In terms of production, the comprehensive utilization rate of blast furnace capacity of 163 steel plants in China in this period is 78.45%, which is 2.55 percentage points higher than that of the same period last week. At the same time, the starting rate of steel plants in Tangshan area has risen sharply due to the loose environmental protection policy. At present, the comprehensive utilization rate of blast furnace capacity is 73.17%, which is 14.68 percentage points higher than that of the same period last week.

Coke market: domestic coke market is rising steadily. Since the second round of coke price increase, the game between coke and steel has been fierce. At present, most areas remain stable for the time being. Only a few small and medium-sized steel mills in East China and North China accept a price increase of 50-100 CNY/ton, and dry quenching is the main method. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, affected by the continued weakening of the downstream steel market, the steel mills have resisted the second increase; secondly, in some areas, the environmental protection and production limitation force has increased due to the event-driven, and the coke stock of the coking plant is low, which is still optimistic about the future market. From the perspective of Tangshan area, due to the weakening of environmental protection and production restriction, the start-up rate of some coke enterprises has increased, and the coking time of coke ovens in coke enterprises has decreased from 20 to 36 hours. As of August 12, the average transaction price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan area was 1940 CNY/ton, unchanged from the same period last week.

Shipping Market: Adjustment of Coastal Coal Transport Market Fluctuation. Affected by typhoon weather, the capacity of coastal shipping market has declined, and the current price is mainly adjusted by fluctuations. Coastal coal tariff index closed at 663.16 points, up 4.7 points, or 0.71%, from the same period last week. Among them, the Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou (50-60,000 tons) and Tianjin-Shanghai (20-30,000 tons) freight rates are 34.7 CNY/ton and 31.8 CNY/ton, which are basically unchanged from the same period last week. Internationally, affected by the weak downward trend of long-distance mining routes and the sharp drop in oil prices, the International Dry Bulk Integrated Freight Index continued to explore. As of August 9, the Baltic Integrated Freight Index (BDI) closed at 1748, 40 points lower than the same period last week, a decline of 2.24%.