Anthracite price, not bottom yet?

In August, the domestic anthracite market weakened as a whole. The demand for anthracite in downstream chemical and metallurgical industries continued to be low. The pressure of some coal mines in the producing areas continued to call back the price of anthracite. It is expected that the market will not improve significantly until the relationship between supply and demand in the anthracite market has not changed significantly.

As of August 30, the tax price index of domestic anthracite washed mid-plate was 1015.02, which was 20.25% lower than that of last month, with a decrease of 1.95%, 117.98% lower than that of last year and 10.41% lower than that of last year. In August, China's anthracite market as a whole showed a weak and stable operation trend, and the demand of downstream users was weak. Shanxi, Henan and other areas of anthracite mines continued to reduce the price of anthracite under pressure.

The price of mainstream smokeless mid-block car plate in Jincheng area of Shanxi Province is now 990 CNY/ton, which is down 30 CNY/ton this month, a decrease of 2.94%. The price of Q5800 car plate for anthracite end-coal is 610 CNY/ton, a decrease of 35 CNY/ton this month, a decrease of 5.42%. The tax price of mainstream anthracite ore acceptance in Handan area of Hebei Province is 900-1020 CNY/ton since July. Some of the subordinate coal mines have reduced the price of anthracite lump coal by 20-170 CNY/ton, while the tax price of the smokeless medium lump coal plate in Jiaozuo area of Henan Province has been implemented at 1120 CNY/ton, which has dropped by 20 CNY/ton this month, a decrease of 1.75%.

In August, except for some coal mines in Northwest, North China and Central China, which are affected by the moving of working face, exhaustion of coal resources, environmental protection and other factors, production is limited, most of the other anthracite coal mines are in normal production, and the weak demand of downstream users is the main negative factor leading to coal enterprises to reduce coal prices under pressure.

Specifically: (1) In recent years, downstream urea, methanol and other chemical products continue to weaken, downstream demand is relatively light, the enthusiasm of users for anthracite procurement continues to be low, on-demand procurement is the main, coupled with the impact of gasified coal as a substitute in Shenmu, Shaanxi and Ordos, Inner Mongolia, the demand for anthracite for chemical industry has shrunk. It is difficult to find growth point in the short term.

(2) In August, Tangshan Steel Works implemented the policy of production restriction. In addition, the trend of steel products continued to be weak, the profit level of steel enterprises was not high, and the enthusiasm of users for raw coal transportation continued to be low, mainly to maintain normal production.

(3) Since the second half of this year, the production capacity of pithead power coal has been continuously released, while the inventory of downstream power plants has always been at a high level, but daily consumption has not reached the same level in previous years. With the supplement of Changxie coal and imported coal, the downstream users'demand for coal purchase in the market is not high, and the price of final coal for power use has been in a fluctuating and declining trend as a whole.

(4) After mid-August, downstream users'enthusiasm for purchasing civilian coal has increased. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Hebei reflect that goods have improved. However, due to environmental protection and the implementation of coal-to-gas conversion in recent years, downstream users' demand for civilian coal is limited, and it is difficult for civil coal to have a large market for anthracite. Good support for scope and sustainability. Specifically, China's urea market tends to weaken, with the gradual decline of domestic trade demand, new single delivery is obviously not smooth, business procurement caution is the top; scattered procurement of agricultural demand, air pollution control of industrial demand, low start-up load, most of the procurement follow-up on demand; the port end of bidding, pay attention to the next bidding dynamics. And the start-up of compound fertilizer. According to Zhuo Chuang's data, the average price of large granular urea was 1851 CNY/ton in August, with a monthly decrease of 2.17% and a monthly decrease of 0.22% compared with the same period of last year. The average price of small granular urea in China was 1814 CNY/ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.77% and a monthly decrease of 4.68% compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, although the price reduction scope of anthracite market has narrowed after the late August, due to the continued weak demand of downstream users, there is still greater pressure on sales of some coal mines in producing areas. Later, considering that before the 70th anniversary celebration, environmental protection, security inspection and other factors may affect the production and storage of local coal mines, the anthracite market may be well supported at that time, but considering that the downstream will also be affected, it is expected that the market demand of anthracite will not be significantly improved, not excluding the continued return of some coal mines in the producing areas. Possibility of coal price adjustment.