Fourteenth Five-Year Plan' to draw up a timetable

Despite the distance from the 13th Five-Year Plan, there is still more than a year to go before the end of 2020, but according to the procedure, 2019 is the 14th Five-Year Plan Start-up year of planning. Up to now, up to the state ministries and commissions, down to the provinces and municipalities have launched a comprehensive "fourteenth five-year" planning demonstration and subject collection work. The preparation of the 14th Five-Year Plan will give full play to its guiding role. "During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economic development has entered a critical period of high-quality development, and will pursue more quality and efficiency, especially innovation-driven and market-driven growth." Liu Xiangdong, a researcher in the Economic Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, made an analysis of the Times Weekly reporter.

Many places have put out the timetable for the preparation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Taking Chongqing as an example, the compilation will take two years and be divided into three stages: basic ideas, Municipal Committee recommendations and planning outline. Among them, the basic thinking stage (June 2019 to March 2020) will organize the preliminary study of major issues.

Jiangxi Province requires that all plans be issued by June 2021. According to the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan Work Program" issued by Jiangxi Province in May this year, the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" planning system includes planning outline, special planning, regional planning, territorial spatial planning and city and county planning. In an interview with Times Weekly, Yuan Fuhua, a researcher at the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, two things should be focused on: first, the high-quality development of manufacturing industry. Secondly, the development of surrounding urban agglomerations is driven by central cities. "These two tasks can lay a solid foundation for the next stage and realize a virtuous cycle of urbanization".

Statistical Indicator System to be updated

China has formulated its first Five-Year Plan since 1953. From the 11th Five-Year Plan, the Five-Year Plan has been replaced by the Five-Year Plan. From the current situation, it is not difficult to complete most of the indicators in the 13th Five-Year Plan. For example, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the expected economic growth target is more than 6.5% per year. 2016? In 2018, the three-year average growth rate was 6.7%. This means that as long as the economic growth rate in 2019 and 2020 is not less than 6.1%, the 13th Five-Year Plan can be achieved. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the economic growth rate in the first half of 2019 was 6.3%. Many market research institutions believe that the economic growth rate this year is about 6.3%.

For the setting of the expected growth target of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the academic circles generally believe that the 14th Five-Year Plan still needs to pursue high-quality economic development.

Liu Xiangdong believes that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economy may remain at 5.5% with the expansion of the gross base and the requirements of high-quality development under the complex and changeable internal and external environment. 6% growth.

Yuan Fuhua believed that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the economic growth should try to "protect six", leaving room for economic transformation. He also suggested that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the integration of manufacturing and service industries should be taken so as to avoid inefficient growth and support the "6". With the deepening of economic transformation and upgrading, how to measure the development results has become an important issue to be considered in the current planning work. Yang Chang, senior economist and head of policy group of China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, told TIME Weekly that the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" is not only the overall arrangement for the next five years, but also the guidance for each direction of work, and needs the corresponding evaluation system to cooperate.

Yang Chang takes Shanghai as an example. Shanghai can produce a large amount of service consumption, but service consumption is not covered by the total retail sales of traditional social consumer goods. In addition, Shanghai's new technology, new format and new model can not be covered by the traditional industrial value-added indicators.

"The existing statistical index system is difficult to evaluate the actual problems of Shanghai's development, which has common characteristics at the national level." Yang Chang suggested that we should further optimize the statistical index system in the 14th Five-Year Plan and make the implicit part more explicit.

Promoting the structural reform of supply side

The structural reform of supply side is the clear main line of development in the 13th Five-Year Plan. Xu Lin, chairman of the Sino-US Green Fund and former director of the Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote that this task could not accomplish its historical mission within five years and needs to be further promoted during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

"Compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the core content of the structural reform of the time supply side in the 14th Five-Year Plan period should be transformed into all-round innovation, and the core should be the innovation of the system and mechanism and the innovation of science and technology." Xu Lin thinks.

Yuan Fuhua told reporters that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China was still in the late stage of industrialization - the industrialization process had not yet been completed, and the manufacturing industry had not yet achieved high-quality development. Next, in the transition from industrial society to knowledge society, the structural reform of supply side still needs to be promoted. "Industrial society is centered on production and supply, while knowledge society is dominated by service industry and consumption, based on consumption to see production, thus forming an inversion mechanism, that is, to invert the upgrade of supply side with the upgrade of demand side."

Yuan Fuhua also believes that the service industry and consumption-oriented are the typical characteristics of urbanization, which should be reflected in the big cities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Benign urbanization is manifested in the upgrading of service industry, consumption structure and the increase of public welfare expenditure. The three are mainly centered on the improvement of the quality of labor force, pointing to the knowledge society.