Security Inspection-Environmental Protection, Coal Price is Difficult to Choose

This week, the price increase of power coal in the main producing areas narrowed, and the power coal market in the northern ports ran smoothly as a whole. On the production area, after the concentrated increase of coal price in the early stage, the price of most coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, remained stable. Under the influence of the downstream coking, chemical industry, building materials industry shutdown and production restriction, the overall demand for coal was weak, and the power of coal price continued to rise was insufficient. The price of pulverized coal in most coal mines in Ordos has been running smoothly. The price of individual washed pulverized coal has been lowered by 5 CNY/ton. Driven by the civil demand, lump coal has been running steadily, moderately and strongly. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of lump coal in Yiqi Coal Mine has been raised by 15 CNY/ton to 465 CNY/ton. On the northern port side, with the decrease of temperature and the start of unit maintenance in some power plants, the demand for coal used by major coastal power enterprises has turned to decline, but coal prices are temporarily stable due to the rising coal prices in the producing areas and the support of transportation costs. At present, the mainstream flat warehouse price of 5500 big calorie coal is 585-590 CNY/ton, and the mainstream flat warehouse price of 5000 big calorie coal is 515-520 CNY/ton. Near the National Day coal mines and downstream enterprises have a downward trend in start-up rate, coal supply and demand will show a weak situation, coal prices are expected to oscillate slightly in the short term.

Upstream: The 70th anniversary celebration is imminent. Before the big coal mine safety inspection, the Office of the Security Committee of the State Council and the Ministry of Emergency Management issued a circular requesting all regions, relevant departments and units to strengthen safety precautions, resolutely curb major and extraordinary accidents, and create a good environment for celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China. The State Administration of Coal Mine Safety has dispatched seven inspection teams to carry out comprehensive supervision of coal mine safety production in many provinces and municipalities in China. The major coal-producing provinces have also begun major inspections of safety in production in the province, requiring the effective implementation of the responsibility of supervision and management of safety in production in coal mines.

On September 10, Shaanxi Safety Production Committee issued the "Notice on Implementing the Responsibility of Coal Mine Safety Production Supervision and Management" requesting that all coal mines in Shaanxi Province strengthen the responsibility of safety production supervision and management during National Day.

Shenmu individual coal mines began to stop production after receiving inspection notice and resumed normal production after National Day. Some private mines in Shenmu said that production would stop around September 25. Some coal producers have begun to stop production and repair on their own initiative, and supply will gradually tighten. Shanxi-Shaanxi Coal Mine Safety Inspection! Shaanxi Coal Mine Inspection "Full List" announced! Inner Mongolia area, Orlin Rabbit Mine temporarily stopped production, pulled out the existing remaining coal will stop production and marketing. It is reported that the coal mine is currently awaiting acceptance. Yangshita Coal Mine is about to stop production and move underground. It is rumored that all mining areas in Ordos have been shut down since 25, and take leave on 4 October. It's hard to tell whether the news is true or not, but with the approaching of National Day, the number of coal mine shutdowns will increase.

Downstream: Electric coal demand is sluggish, and the "shutdown order" under environmental protection comes again

Electric coal. In recent years, the stock of power plants has decreased significantly. Coal storage in six coastal power plants has dropped to 15.76 million tons, which is more than 2 million tons lower than that in early July. However, in some southern regions, the temperature has decreased and the civil electricity load has decreased; in addition, unit inspection of some power plants has also decreased. The daily consumption of the six major power plants along the coast has dropped to 670,000-700,000 tons. The number of days available for coal storage in power plants is still as high as 22 days, plus a certain amount of imported coal as a supplement. At present, most power plants are not short of coal except for individual power plants. In the aspect of industrial coal, before Daqing, the northern production enterprises of the Yellow River limited production and emission reduction, and the southern cement enterprises staggered peak production, the demand for industrial coal was sluggish.

Recently, the state issued the policy of "Action Plan for Comprehensive Control of Air Pollution in Autumn and Winter of 2019-2020 in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and its surrounding areas", namely "Stop Work Order". From October 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020, a six-month special environmental renovation will be carried out.

The cities covered by the shutdown order include Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai, Baoding, Cangzhou, Langfang, Hengshui, Taiyuan, Yangquan, Changzhi, Jincheng, Jinan, Zibo, Jining, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Binzhou, Heze, Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Anyang and Hehe. Bi, Xinxiang, Jiaozuo and Puyang are abbreviated as "2 + 26" cities. According to statistics, more than 1000 cement enterprises will be restricted in this production limit. Therefore, the demand for industrial coal in the fourth quarter is not optimistic. With the approaching of National Day, coal prices will oscillate slightly in terms of supply. With the approaching 70th anniversary of Daqing, safety and environmental protection inspections in major production areas have entered a high-pressure stage, and the autumn overhaul of Daqin Line has started. In the later period, the coal resources from Qinhuangdao to Hong Kong will decrease slightly, and the overall coal supply will gradually shrink. On the demand side, the downstream coking, chemical industry, building materials, metals and other industries will stop production and limit production after the end of September. At the same time, the coastal power plants will start unit maintenance, and the demand for coal will gradually decline. Overall, the domestic power coal market will show two weak trends in supply and demand. It is expected that coal prices will oscillate slightly next week in Qin Dynasty. Huangdao 5500 Daka Power Coal will be located in the vicinity of 580-590 CNY/ton.