The Future will Maintain the Trend of Shock Repair

Affected by extreme weather and other factors, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises declined in August. However, in the first eight months, the profit growth of equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industries has warmed up in varying degrees, while the profits of private enterprises and small enterprises have maintained growth. Analysts believe that the short-term adjustment of the profits of industrial enterprises will not change the upward recovery trend of the overall profits of industrial enterprises.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that from January to August, the total profits of Industrial Enterprises above the national scale fell by 1.7% year-on-year, the decline was the same as from January to July. Among them, in August, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above the scale fell by 2% compared with the same period last year, and in July they increased by 2.6% compared with the same period last year.

Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, said that from August, the industrial profit fell slightly from a month earlier, which was mainly affected by the slowdown in industrial production and sales, the increase in the fall in the price of industrial products, and the unfavorable factors of the super typhoon.

From the industry performance, the profit growth of major industries such as automobile, electronics and non-ferrous metals has improved. From January to August, the profit of automobile and electronics industry decreased by 19% and 2.7% year on year, respectively, but the decline was 4.2 and 3.6 percentage points narrower than that of January to July. The profit of non-ferrous industry increased by 9.7% year on year, and the growth rate accelerated by 3.7 percentage points. In addition, the profit growth of equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industries has warmed up in varying degrees. The data show that in January and August, the profit of equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 0.7% year on year, which was 2.2 percentage points narrower than that in January and July. The profit of high-tech manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industry increased by 2.8% and 3%, respectively, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.6 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.

With a series of policies to promote the development of private enterprises, the profits of private enterprises have maintained a relatively rapid growth since the second half of the year. According to the latest data, profits of private and small businesses increased by 6.5% and 10.3% respectively from January to August. The data also show that the ratio of assets and liabilities of Industrial Enterprises above scale is 56.8% at the end of August, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. Among them, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned holding enterprises is 58.4%, which is reduced by 0.9 percentage points.

Chief macroeconomic analyst at Huatai Securities, said that the substantial effect of tax reduction and tax reduction has gradually emerged, and inventory is gradually bottoming up. In the future, it is expected to switch from passive library to replenishment bank. He predicted that the future profits of industrial enterprises will remain volatile repair trend, and short-term adjustment will not change the overall trend of industrial enterprises to repair profits above 0%. It is worth noting that recent high-frequency data show that the current industrial production and demand may be improved. According to the agency forecast report, the PMI of manufacturing industry in September, which will come out next Monday, is expected to rebound slightly, with the industrial value added rising to 5.8% year-on-year in September.