When will the deadlock in the coal market end?

At present, the coal trade is cold, the coastal coal market is deadlocked, traders are actively bidding, while the downstream counter-offer price is low, and the actual port transaction price is low. The price of power coal in the 5500 card market of Hong Kong and Hong Kong has been stable at 587 CNY/ton for a week. The price of port coal is difficult to change before the national day and remains stable. After the festival, with the increase of coal consumption in some industries in the South and the beginning of power plant replenishment, the situation of coal price stalemate in ports is expected to be broken.

Firstly, in the off-season of coal use, downstream power plants rely on high inventory and are not in a hurry to pull coal in large quantities.

Entering this week, with the decrease of temperature in the South and the weakening of civil power load, the power plant shuts down some units under its jurisdiction for maintenance, and the coal consumption decreases; the daily consumption of six major power plants along the coast falls to about 600,000 tons, and the usable days of coal storage are as high as 25 days. Downstream demand has dropped somewhat, coal pulling enthusiasm is relatively low; the port of Bohai anchored coal dropped to 74 ships, of which Qinhuangdao port anchor ship only 16.

Secondly, cement and other industries have not resumed production, and coal demand continues to remain depressed. Cement, chemical industry and other industries have not yet resumed production, and most of the high energy consuming industries need to wait until after the national day. In order to control excessive dust during the national day, some enterprises stop production and reduce emissions. At present, the demand for coal in the southern region is not strong, and the quantity of coal in the procurement market is too small to drive the rise of coal prices.

Thirdly, imported coal maintains a certain level and domestic coal maintains rigidity in downstream haulage. Southern power plants purchase imported coal regularly, and about half of the coal used by many coastal power plants comes from imported coal. In the case of stable demand for coal this year, the demand for domestic coal in the downstream is obviously insufficient. In addition, despite the decrease of rainfall, UHV transmission continues to maintain a certain level, resulting in the reduction of thermal power pressure in coastal areas, which is even worse for the coal market.

Fourth, upstream suppliers expect better, and the quotation of low-sulfur and high-quality coal remains firm.

Nearly 70 years, coal mine safety, environmental protection inspection tightening, supply constraints, coupled with the maintenance of Daqin line, pit coal prices rose. After the National Day holiday, although the weather became cooler and the southern civil power load was lower, the demand for coal increased with the resumption of production in cement and other industries. The most important point is to store and transport coal in winter; downstream power plants will begin to increase the number of coal procurement, and the enthusiasm for north-up transport will be restored. It is expected that the market will slowly improve, and the port and port coal enterprises have increased, and port coal prices have risen slightly, thus ending the previous stage of stability and stalemate!