The great influence of Gulf crisis on the international oil situation

The Gulf Crisis, which attracts worldwide attention, has not only caused severe turbulence in the Middle East, but also exerted a great influence on the world's politics and economy. It will determine the trend of the international oil situation in the last 10 years of this century. The Gulf crisis will force oil-consuming countries to change their energy policies and oil-producing countries to change their production policies. In the next 10 years, the world will witness a climax of energy conservation, energy substitution and energy development. Oil price turbulence caused by the Gulf crisis has had a huge impact on oil-consuming countries, which are taking measures to eliminate its impact. It can be predicted that the new energy restructuring after the oil crisis in the 1970s will reappear after the Gulf crisis.

In terms of policy, western oil consumers are formulating policies to get rid of their heavy dependence on oil, especially on Gulf oil. On August 20, President Bush called on Americans to curb oil use; Congress called for a new energy strategy to restore some of the energy conservation and alternative energy production plans implemented or strengthened during the Carter Administration; and on September 13, U.S. Secretary of Energy Watkins announced a Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources to encourage energy conservation and promote fuel conversion. The 14-point plan includes approval of gas pipelines and waste incinerators, increased use of convertible fuel vehicles by federal agencies and improved energy efficiency in government buildings, a national campaign to encourage Americans to save fuel and electricity and replace inefficient furnaces. In early August, the Japanese government decided to hold a conference to promote energy and resources conservation in order to reduce oil consumption; the Prime Minister of the Sea called on the people to save energy. On 16 August, experts from the International Energy Agency met to discuss the feasibility of substituting natural gas and coal for oil in power stations in various countries, and to study the reduction of oil consumption. In early September, the Latin American Energy Organization will urge governments to strengthen their energy sectors. According to the Christian Science Monitor, the Gulf crisis will force the United States and other industrialized countries to recognise that energy policies should be formulated on a less oil-dependent basis.

Economically, the current international oil price has reached the level of stimulating energy diversification, energy conservation and energy substitution in oil-consuming countries, and world oil consumption will decline. From the evolution of the international oil situation in the 1970s and 1980s, as long as the international oil price remains above $20 per barrel for a long time, it will be enough to stimulate countries to adjust their energy structure. Firstly, according to the actual data in the 1980s, if the oil price is between $11 and $12 a barrel, coal can be used to replace oil; if the oil price rises to $15 a barrel, it will be difficult for fuel oil to compete with coal and natural gas in the market, and the proportion of oil in the world's energy consumption structure will decline. Second, energy-saving data from Western companies show that $20 a barrel of oil can stimulate vigorous energy conservation. The Middle East Economic Survey estimates that by the end of the century, oil-consuming countries will be able to reduce energy consumption by 30 per cent, relying solely on existing technologies and small investments. Third, alternative energy plans will be strengthened. For example, Brazil already has 4.5 million cars using alcohol, which can replace 200,000 barrels of oil a day. Fourthly, nuclear power will develop greatly, and the momentum of weakening after Chernobyl accident will be reversed. For example, Indonesia is planning to build a nuclear power plant. The International Energy Agency estimates that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will reduce its oil consumption by 10% in the fourth quarter of this year compared with the same period in 1989. Oil producers will expand production under the stimulus of the Gulf crisis, while non-OPEC oil producers will reverse the downward trend. Taking the current Gulf crisis as an opportunity, in the next few years, worldwide oil exploration and development activities will be very active, and world oil production is expected to increase greatly.

Oil production in member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will develop greatly. At the end of last year, OPEC Secretary-General Roberto Subroto announced that in the 1990s the 13 members of the organization would spend $60 billion to restore oil production capacity to the level of 30 million barrels a day in the 1970s to meet the world's demand for its oil. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates are prepared to invest tens of billions of dollars in five years to increase their production capacity from 18 million barrels per day in 1989 to 25 million barrels, of which Saudi Arabia alone will invest 15 billion dollars and increase its production capacity from 6.5 million barrels to 10 million barrels per day. Not only will the Gulf crisis not hinder OPEC members'plans to expand production, but it will stimulate them to accelerate implementation. According to foreign reports on September 5, Venezuela said it was ready to use the $2 billion increase in oil prices to expand oil production, increasing oil production from the current 2.8 million barrels to 3.5 million barrels in 1995. Countries such as Indonesia will also expand oil production. Non-OPEC oil production will revive. Oil production in the United States, the largest non-OPEC oil producer, is likely to rebound. Since 1986, 450,000 low-yield wells in the United States have been shut down due to low oil prices, reducing oil production by 1.3 million barrels per day. It is estimated that the cost of these low-yield wells is $18 per barrel, and the current oil price will stimulate these low-yield wells to gradually resume production. U.S. Secretary of Energy Watkins announced that the United States will increase oil production in the next year and a half to two years, and asked Congress to approve oil development in Alaska's wildlife reserves. The European Community decided on 21 August to provide 51 million European currencies