Silver ten' dream of acrylic acid

The average price of Acrylic Acid in September was 2.26% lower than that in August, and 18.98% lower than that in the same period of last year. "In the later stage, with weak demand and sufficient supply, acrylic acid market will continue to expand its weakness, and it is difficult to have bright spots," silver ten "dream is also difficult to realize." Zhang Dandan, an analyst with jinlianchuang, and other analysts think coating online is coatingol.com. Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trade Co., Ltd., said that the main reason for the poor performance of acrylic acid market is the sufficient market supply. It is understood that 60000 T / a of phase I of Shandong Hengzheng, 160000 T / a of Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing and 160000 T / a of phase II of Shanghai Huayi new materials Co., Ltd. are all put into production this year. In addition, Shandong Noor acrylic acid and refined acid plant products are gradually released to the domestic bulk market. People in the industry said that after entering October, many maintenance devices will gradually resume production, acrylic acid production enterprises will maintain a medium and high level of operating rate, and the supply of goods is still sufficient. To be specific, CNOOC Huizhou acrylic acid and ester plant and Shanghai Huayi two-phase plant are under normal operation; Qilu Kaitai old area acrylic acid plant is scheduled to resume operation in the first ten days of October; Shandong Hongxin plant that stops at the end of September is also scheduled to resume operation in the first ten days of October; Shenyang wax plant is scheduled to stop for maintenance on September 5 and resume operation at the end of October. From the perspective of the profits of production enterprises, at present, the cost pressure of acrylic acid and ester industry is relatively large, most enterprises are hovering below the cost line, and the profit per ton of good enterprises is only 200 yuan, while the loss margin of downstream acrylate enterprises is about 1000 yuan.

At present, although acrylic acid manufacturers have strong willingness to stand the price, the downstream profit situation is not good, and the resistance is strong, so the short-term market has a lot of resistance. " Zhang Dandan analyzed. According to Zhang Xu, manager of Jilin Baoyuan Chemical Trade Co., Ltd., the market focus of propylene fell in September, and the average price of Shandong in the mainstream region was 7712.5 yuan, down by about 2.8% compared with August, which is difficult to bring cost support to the acrylic acid market. In the middle of September, the propylene market rose rapidly driven by the decrease of the volume outside the northeast region, the purchase of the downstream stock before the festival, and the impact of crude oil and polypropylene futures. However, the enthusiasm of the downstream market is not good, and the propylene manufacturers make profits to ship under the inventory pressure. Near the end of the month, affected by the policy of limited production and operation, the downstream enterprises reduced the starting load, the demand for propylene decreased, the production enterprises actively arranged warehouses, and the price focus fell rapidly.

During the national day, the domestic propylene market maintained stable operation, the low inventory of most refineries in Shandong supported stable offer, and the supply in East China was larger than the price adjustment needed. For the aftermarket, Zhang Dandan and other insiders believe that the propylene production enterprises have limited market support due to the mutual presence of start and stop. It is understood that the catalytic unit of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down on October 9 and planned to be overhauled for one month; the Yatong unit was restarted in the middle of October; the East China Xinpu unit was shut down on October 5 and expected to return to production on October 18; the PDH and downstream p p granular unit of Donghua Fuji Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down and overhauled for one month on October 5; the storage and overhauling plan of South China Guangzhou petrochemical plant. However, there are many downstream units overhauled, which weakens the momentum of propylene market. It is understood that Dongming Dongfang butanol and octanol plant will be shut down for 2-3 weeks during the national day; Jilin Petrochemical butanol and octanol plant will be overhauled for one month from October 8, and a set of 106000t / a acrylonitrile plant will be overhauled for about 20 days from October 9; Jiangsu huachangding octanol plant will be overhauled on October 5. As a whole, as the downstream units are shut down in succession, the demand for propylene will be reduced, and the market price is at risk of sliding, so it is difficult to support acrylic acid on the cost side. He Junsong, a salesman of Jilin Petrochemical Company, said that from the downstream perspective, the demand for acrylate and terminal industries remained low due to the adverse factors such as Sino US trade friction and economic downturn. According to he Junsong, affected by the upgrading of Sino US trade friction, some import and export businesses in the downstream and terminal industries of acrylic acid are blocked, which are transferred to the consumption rate of raw materials such as acrylic acid and ester, thus affecting the market. "Jinjiu" and the current downstream market performance of acrylic acid also confirm this point. Emulsion, water reducing agent, resin and adhesive tape, and other industry orders are not good, the lower reaches of the purchase of flat gas, acrylic acid and ester just need to purchase, the market trading mentality to suppress.

Wang Chunming said that the mother tape business of the adhesive tape manufacturers needed stocking at the end of September, and still needed to purchase after the National Day holiday. Overall, the demand for acrylic acid downstream remains low, and the "silver ten" market is likely to fail.