Increasing downward pressure on port coal price

In terms of production area, at present, most of the coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have resumed production and their supply has stabilized. Affected by the drop in temperature, the demand for civil coal in Yulin increased, bulk coal and seed coal sold well, and the price increased by about 5-15 CNY/ton. At present, the inventory of key power plants in China is as high as 88 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons on a year-on-year basis. The purchase demand of downstream power plants is not high, and the delivery of surface coal is relatively slow, and the price decreased by 15-40 CNY/ton. Affected by the weak port market, the overall sales situation of Ordos region is general, while the lump coal is better because of the close sale in the winter store, and the price of coal production in the region is steadily adjusted. In terms of ports, the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea continued to rise recently. As of today, the inventory of nine ports around the Bohai Sea was 27.728 million tons, an increase of 98000 tons on a month on month basis.

At present, only non electric terminal purchase is occasionally released in the port, and the buyer is willing to hold down the price strongly, the actual transaction is not much, and the quotation of traders is gradually moving down. Now, the mainstream quotation of cv5500 is about 580-585 CNY/ton, and that of cv5000 is about 510-515 CNY/ton. At this stage, the supply and demand of the port is weak and significant. It is also learned that Caofeidian port plans to take measures to dredge the port tomorrow, which may accelerate the decline of coal price. In terms of imported coal, Australian coal inquiry has increased. At present, the FOB price in Australia (cv5500) is 49-49.5 US dollars / ton, up about 1 US dollar / ton on a weekly basis; currently, the FOB price in Indonesia (cv3800) is maintained at 33-33.5 US dollars / ton. China imported 30.288 million tons of coal in September, up 20.5%; down 8.1% month on month. From January to September this year, a total of 250.57 million tons of coal were imported, up 9.5% year on year. It is estimated that the price advantage of imported coal to South China port in September is about 60-147 CNY/ton, and the relatively loose policy of imported coal is the reason for the year-on-year growth of import volume. It is reported that the import volume of 24 of China's 72 ports has exceeded that of 2018, and the import volume of the other 7 ports is about to reach the level of last year.