Power coal: when does coal price hit bottom and rebound

After the National Day holiday, the coal market is much lower than expected, and the demand is obviously off-season. In the near future, the coal market in the production area has been stable, and the port coal market is not optimistic. The port coal price has been in a negative state. In terms of imported coal, China imported 30.288 million tons of coal in September, up 5.151 million tons year on year, up 20.49%. From the data, the number of imported coal in September is still more than 30 million tons, and the imported coal has been more than 30 million tons for three consecutive months, which has a great impact on the market coal. At present, most of the coastal power plants rely on long-term cooperative coal and imported coal for coal procurement, making the market coal procurement plan less, which is an important negative factor for domestic spot. Some analysts pointed out that the price of imported coal continued to rise in the near future, and the price gap between domestic and foreign prices narrowed, but the profit space was still attractive, and the import policy showed signs of relaxation. In the near future, power plants tend to purchase imported coal, with low attention paid to domestic trade coal. In the short term, the market will maintain a weak operation, and the momentum of a sharp downward trend has not been shown.

As for the trend of coal price in the later stage, it is understood that the power plant inventory is at a high level, and the outsourcing is mainly to replenish and maintain the high inventory operation under the premise of appropriate price, and the long-term coal supply is stable, and the market demand for coal is limited. The demand of cement plant in the fourth quarter is good, but it is mainly to cash in long-term cooperative coal, and there is no purchase of market coal. Traders mostly believe that the short-term coal price will continue to decline. With the coming of heating season in the later stage, the coal consumption load of the power plant will be increased, forming a certain support for the price, or will rebound slightly. In terms of the latest market, on the 21st, the port inquiry increased slightly, but the actual new demand was less, and a small amount of demand counter price was low, but the supplier was resistant to the low counter price, the supply and demand mentality was different, and the transaction was deadlocked. On October 21, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 575 CNY/ton, 1 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous period, 12 CNY/ton or 2.0% lower than the price in the same period in the previous month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 504 CNY/ton, 2 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous period, 14 CNY/ton or 2.7% lower than the price in the same period in the previous month. Through a trader in Inner Mongolia, China coal resources network learned that at present, the market is mostly on the lookout and the actual transaction is less. It is expected that prices will remain stable and weak until the beginning of November.

After November, under the influence of winter temperature drop and tight market coal resources, prices are likely to rise. In addition, according to the assessment of Fenwei energy's production area on October 18, it is estimated that the cost of transporting cv5500 to the northern port in "Sanxi" area is 626 yuan for Shanxi coal, 608 yuan for Mongolian coal, 609 yuan for Shaanxi coal, 576 yuan for cci5500 index on October 18, and 50 yuan, 32 yuan and 33 yuan for cost inversion. The average level of shipment hanging upside down is 0.33 yuan higher than the previous day. On the downstream side, as of October 22, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.055 million tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 185000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 215000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 586000 tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio decrease of 44000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 88000 tons; the available days were 27.4 days, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 2.2 days, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4 days. In terms of producing area, the demand for terminal coal is weak, and the price of coal in producing area continues to fall. The price of coal in Shanxi Province is stable, the production and sales of coal mines are stable, and the inventory is low. The coal price in Shaanxi and Mongolia continued to decline, the demand of traders decreased, the demand of coking plant, coal washing plant and other users was weak, the coal truck pulled by the coal mine decreased, the inventory pressure increased, some coal mines still had a small amount of inventory after price reduction, and the mine side was pessimistic about future expectations.