Power coal weak down, import coal impact greater!

In recent years, the transaction of power coal port is bleak, and the trade activity is relatively cold. In addition to the basic long-term cooperative coal transportation, other coal procurement activities are very negative. According to the current inventory data of six coastal power plants in China, after the summer, the coal consumption of power plants is low, and the coal storage quantity brings about 15.5 million tons, and the available days are more than 26 days. At present, there are only 12 anchor ships in Qinhuangdao port, while in the same period last year, there are 36 anchor ships in Qinhuangdao port, three times of the current number. From the perspective of the situation of coal import in the third quarter, the more restrictions there are, the more imports there are. In the third quarter, a total of 96.11 million tons of coal were imported, with an average monthly import of 32.03 million tons. From the analysis of the current situation of imported coal, in addition to the prohibition of customs clearance in other places, the national level does not seem to consider the introduction of more and more stringent import restriction policies, or the introduction of specific programs of "horizontal control" policy. Australia, Indonesia and other countries continue to import coal smoothly into the domestic market, attracting domestic coastal power plants and other users with its advantages of high quality and low price.

With the increase of imported coal, the inventory of power plant is supplemented in time; the superimposed demand is flat and the daily consumption is low, which makes the pressure of supply exceeding demand in domestic coal market increase. In October, coastal coal market was cold and port transportation was flat; based on the coal price entering the fast downward channel, user procurement slowed down in the heart of "buying up but not buying down". It is worth noting that the coal transportation capacity of the port around the Bohai Sea has been improved rapidly, and the number of sites and stacks has increased. In addition, the railway has made full efforts to make up for the deficit and speed up the transportation. A large amount of coal has been poured into the port around the Bohai Sea. The coal storage in the port around the Bohai Sea has been increasing, and the pressure of market supply exceeding demand has increased. The strong landing of imported coal in coastal areas has led to a decline in the market share of domestic coal enterprises; users are willing to purchase low-cost imported coal, while taking the long-term coal stockpiled in the northern ports as a supplement, which has also resulted in the lack of market coal. In terms of coal price, there is no sign of stabilizing and stopping the decline; before the arrival of centralized storage and transportation in winter, coal price can only rely on the hard support of shipping cost, showing a declining trend. It is predicted that before the arrival of winter storage and transportation and cold winter, the cold situation of coal demand and market coal trading will not be improved. According to the analysis of relevant market personnel, the future market and coal price rise can only be expected from the replenishment and purchase of cement industry. With the increase of the operating rate of cement plants in South China, the demand for coal in North Shanxi will be increased. This part of domestic coal is generally high calorific value and high volatility, and the internal water is 3.5. However, the imported coal can not meet the demand of domestic cement plants. Therefore, the relationship between power coal price support and power plant demand will be weakened this winter. Domestic cement plants can increase demand and have a greater impact on domestic coal price.