Soybeans Tread Water Amid Trade Whispers and Biofuel Hopes

The global oilseed complex floated in cautious optimism during the week ending November 28, 2025, lifted by stronger-than-expected Chinese buying rumors and a surging soybean oil market, yet held back by structural headwinds and unconvincing price competitiveness.

CBOT January soybeans edged up 1.13% to $11.3775/bushel, while soybean oil surged 2.91% to 52.05 cents/pound, hitting a one-month high in oil-meal spreads. Canola in Canada and Europe also rose, reflecting broader vegetable oil strength. Yet underlying tensions simmer: U.S. soybeans remain too expensive versus Brazil, even as China allegedly scooped up 1 million tons post-leaders’ call.

Confirmed sales tell a different story: USDA verified just 312,000 tons to China, far below speculative chatter. With domestic inventories bloated and crush margins weak, Beijing has little incentive to overpay. And time is running out—Brazil’s harvest looms in January, threatening to widen the price gap further. USDA already slashed U.S. export forecasts to 44.5 million tons, the lowest in 12 years.

Meanwhile, biofuel policy limbo keeps soybean oil in suspense. Markets expect favorable mandates from Washington, but government shutdown delays have stalled clarity. Until then, traders wait—and soybeans drift. South American planting lags in parts of Brazil and Argentina, but not enough to spark panic. For now, the market remains trapped in a narrow band, awaiting either a trade breakthrough or a weather shock.