Is the price of coal price lower than expected?

In terms of production area, the overall sales of coal mines in Yulin area has become weak since the weekend. Among them, the production and delivery of coal mines in Shenfu area is not smooth, and the inventory pressure is prominent. The coal price of some mines is reduced by 5-20 CNY/ton, while that of some mines is reduced by 50 CNY/ton due to the unstable coal quality. The downstream demand is continuously weak, while the long-term cooperation volume is relatively stable, further squeezing the market demand for coal. Yesterday, the road sales volume in Ordos area was 1.647 million tons, with a decrease of 59000 tons on a day on month basis. The coal price continues to bear pressure. In terms of ports, most of the traders cut prices to sell their stocks, but most of the downstream wait-and-see demand is low, the spot transactions are rare, the port inventory is not obvious, and the seller's quotation continues to decline. Now, the mainstream quotation of cv5500 is about 575 CNY/ton, and that of cv5000 is about 505 CNY/ton. In terms of imported coal, the FOB prices of Australian coal and Indonesian coal continue to rise driven by the positive demand.

At present, the FOB price in Australia (cv5500) is 51.5-52 US dollars / ton, up about 1 US dollar / ton on a day on month basis; the FOB price in Indonesia (cv3800) is 34.5-35 US dollars / ton, up about 0.5 US dollars / ton on a day on month basis. It is reported that recently, most of the coal ships arriving at a port in Guangdong are Australian coal. However, due to the current loose policy of coal import and the acceleration of customs clearance, the stock of the port has increased rapidly. In terms of shipping, there is no significant change in the market as a whole. Port coal prices continue to fall. Six major power plants are relatively abundant in inventory, and the replenishment is still dominated by long-term cooperation. However, under the influence of imported coal and winter storage, the market is supported. Under the interweaving of multi air factors, the freight rate runs smoothly. As of October 18, the North Jiangyin (2W) freight rate of the river route was 41-42 CNY/ton, which was flat on a day on day basis; the average freight rate of Qinhuangdao Guangzhou (5-6W) ships was 44.4 CNY/ton, which was up 0.2 CNY/ton on a day on month basis. In terms of futures, on October 21, the closing price of power coal 2001 contract was 559 CNY/ton, the warehouse receipt cost of delivery goods was 579 CNY/ton, the discount for futures was 20 CNY/ton, and the discount proportion was 3.58%.