June 18th News
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: On June 18, 2026, the average price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke was 1,887 CNY per ton. The supply of coking coal continued to tighten, and coke production was passively restricted, resulting in limited increases in spot volumes. Currently, the coke market is showing a strong trend with rising prices.
2. Market Analysis
Market Trading: During the national safety production month in June, the high-pressure supervision from the Shanxi Province safety regulatory authorities continues. Within the province, 56 coking coal mines with an annual production capacity of 61.2 million tons remain shut down. The capacity utilization rate of the mines that have resumed production has only recovered to around 70%, and the daily average output of refined coal has decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous period. The supply of primary coking coal and low-sulfur coal remains tight. The prices of coking coal at the production sites increased by 20-100 CNY/ton within the week, and the continuous rise in coal prices is higher than that of coke, leading to a significant increase in the procurement cost of coking raw materials.
Capacity Utilization Rate: Among a sample of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide, the capacity utilization rate stood at 74.39%, down 0.48 percentage points from the previous month. Daily average coke production reached 649,400 tons, marking a slight decrease. The primary reason is insufficient supply of high-quality coking coal, coupled with rising coal prices that are squeezing profit margins. As a result, most independent coking enterprises are now earning only around 20 CNY per ton of coke. Some small- and medium-sized coking enterprises have proactively reduced their operating rates to preserve cash flow, thereby limiting the increase in market-available coke supplies. Meanwhile, integrated steel plants’ own coking operations remain stable, further reducing the volume of coke available for external sales.
Downstream Demand: Currently, the combination of high temperatures in southern China and the rainy season—with the traditional off-season for construction materials—has led to a slowdown in infrastructure and real estate construction. As a result, end-user transactions for rebar and wire rod have weakened month-on-month, and prices of finished steel products have struggled to keep pace with rising costs. Meanwhile, consecutive rounds of coke price hikes continue to push up steelmaking raw material costs, causing the nationwide steel mill profit margins to decline. Most long-process steel mills are now approaching the break-even point, intensifying resistance to further coke price increases and gradually increasing the difficulty of reaching agreement on future price hikes.
spot price: This week, the spot market showed strong performance. The seventh round of price increases by 50-55 CNY/ton was fully implemented on June 15. On June 17, coke enterprises initiated the eighth round of price increases, scheduled to be implemented on June 20, with an increase of 50-55 CNY/ton for both dry and wet quenching coke. Currently, coke and steel enterprises are in a phase of negotiation.
III. Future Market Forecast
Coke analysts believe: The market maintains a strong spot and volatile futures pattern. The eighth round of price increases is likely to be partially implemented, with full implementation facing resistance in negotiations. The main spot price range is: 2150-2180 CNY/ton for first-grade dry quenched coke in Tangshan, with a fluctuation of 50-80 CNY/ton. The trend is initially strong and then stabilizes. At the beginning of the week, coke producers held firm on prices, but by the latter half of the week, steel mills' resistance deepened, and the transaction focus slightly flattened.
