Is port coal price falling 570 CNY/ton the bottom line?

After the national day, affected by the factors such as the resumption of transportation along the Daqin line and the increase of upstream coal shipment, the number of coal trucks arriving at the port has increased; at this time, a large number of Southern users transported imported coal, the inventory has been supplemented, and the enthusiasm of hauling coal from the northern port has declined. As a result, the number of ships pulling coal from the port around Bohai Sea decreased, the phenomenon of empty berthing increased, and the port inventory continued to rise; at the same time, the port market coal price fell again and again. So far, the port coal price has been falling for two weeks, accumulatively down 12 CNY/ton. The author expects that after the coal price falls to 570 CNY/ton, it will stop falling and stabilize, and it is expected to rise slightly next month. The reasons are as follows:

Supported by the shipping cost, it is unlikely that the coal price will continue to fall sharply. The shipping cost of the upstream coal station is relatively high. When the port coal price falls, the shippers lose money. Supported by the shipping cost, it is unlikely to continue to reduce the price and promote sales. Many traders will clear up the coal backlog in the port, no longer continue to ship on a large scale, and the amount of market coal in the port will be reduced; at this time, once the demand improves, some high-quality coal will be in short supply, and the price of coal will be expected to rise. The market coal price is close to the price of Changxie coal, which is supported to some extent. At present, the actual transaction price of power coal in the 5500 kcal market around the Bohai Sea port is about 574 CNY/ton; although many shippers still trade according to the price index, the market coal price has fallen below the monthly long-term contract unit price of sales of large coal enterprises such as Tongmei and Shenhua; in this case, it is difficult for the port market coal to continue to fall. The price of imported coal increased. The CIF price of imported coal in Australia and other countries has increased slightly. At the same time, the price of coal in the port market around Bohai Sea in China has been falling, and the two prices are gradually close to each other, which makes the domestic coal price advantage gradually appear and the port coal price should gradually stabilize. The downstream demand will be increased in winter.

In late October, the peak of winter coal consumption is coming, and the enthusiasm of some users who can't pull the imported coal will be improved; it is worth noting that the domestic coal price is close to the bottom of the valley, and some users have the heart of bottom reading. It is expected that from the end of this month, downstream users will start a wavelet peak of coal pulling. Looking forward to the coal market situation in November, next month, the north will enter the heating coal season; while in East China, the temperature will drop, the water and electricity will weaken, the thermal power load will increase, and the coastal coal market situation will improve. However, whether the coal market can produce the expected high supply and demand, and how much the port market coal price can rise, depends on whether the restrictions on imported coal can be smoothly introduced, as well as the increase of daily consumption of power plants.