When will coastal coal market go well?

With the resumption of production of upstream coal mines, the recovery of railway transportation, the increase of coal trucks arriving at the port, and the increase of port inventory pressure. Originally, during the overhaul of the Daqin line, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port increased by 1.03 million tons. After the overhaul of the Daqin line, the pressure of coal supply exceeding demand increased. In terms of port coal trading, due to the weak demand, the market demand is less, and the downstream price is pressed to purchase. Some coal types are trading down 5 CNY/ton according to the index. Coal prices have fallen for two weeks, and there is no sign of stabilisation. Then, how long will the weak trend of coastal coal market last? When will the expected high supply and demand occur?

The power plant purchases coal passively from the Bohai Sea port. Up to now, six coastal power plants have stored 16.05 million tons of coal and consumed 607400 tons of coal per day. Although the coal consumption has increased by 95000 tons compared with the same period last year, the coal storage has increased by 280000 tons compared with the same period last year. In addition to power on and Datang coastal power plant, the remaining coal storage and utilization days of power plants are more than 20 days; in addition, the climate in the south is suitable, the cold winter has not yet arrived, and coastal power plants rely on high inventory, and are not eager to pull a large number of coal to supplement the storage. The upstream sales and port shipping are not smooth. Most of the coal mines in the production area have resumed normal production, and the supply is relatively stable. The transportation volume of Daqin Railway and Mengji railway has remained high. However, the situation of domestic coal transportation in the downstream is not good, the coal market in the port around Bohai Sea is weak, there are few ships arriving at the port, and the connection between ships and cargoes is not smooth, resulting in slow delivery, increased inventory, and lower coal price.

With the full resumption of Southern Industries and enterprises, and the coal price has fallen to the lowest level of this year, users have the heart to copy the bottom; it is expected that from the end of this month, the enthusiasm of users to transport domestic coal will be restored. Import coal is still considerable. Although it is forbidden to import coal for customs clearance in different places, the decrease of import quantity is not obvious. Affected by the low price of imported coal, cost reduction of power plants, supply guarantee and other factors, power users in coastal areas are still actively purchasing imported coal, which makes the decline of imported coal quantity not obvious; in September, China's imported coal quantity is still up to about 30.28 million tons. With the further stabilization of domestic coal prices and the decline of imported coal profits, the number of imported coal in a single month is expected to shrink to more than 30 million tons in the fourth quarter of this year. The pressure of thermal power increases with the decrease of hydropower. This summer, the proportion of clean energy such as hydropower increased, which reduced the pressure on thermal power. Since October, the rainfall in the South has decreased significantly, the contribution of hydropower has weakened, and the pressure of thermal power has increased; in addition, the daily consumption of power plants has entered a stable period due to the recovery of industrial power consumption; once entering November, with the increase of heating load and the recovery of downstream haulage enthusiasm, the coastal coal market will slowly improve. From the end of this month, with the increase of coal ships arriving at the port, the market will tend to improve, and the coal price in the port market will stabilize and stop falling. In the first ten days of November, with the development of phased haulage, port coal price will show a steady rise, but the increase will not be large.