Ethylene glycol fundamental is expected to be weak while the spot market is down

In recent years, the decline of domestic chemical industry market is mainly due to the pessimism of macro demand and the pressure of putting in new capacity of most chemical products. For polyester industry chain, futures fell due to the weak impact of fundamentals expectation, thus driving the spot market to follow the decline. However, in recent years, PTA and glycol both the main raw materials show strong anti drop momentum, and the market has been dominated by Basic support is required. In October, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of Caixin China's manufacturing industry was 51.7, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in September, rising for four consecutive months, the same as that in February 2017, the highest since 2017. In October, the index of new orders rose sharply, the highest since February 2013. Foreign demand improved significantly, and the index of new export orders rebounded significantly above the boundary between boom and bust. It shows that the prosperity of some markets has improved. Recently, the main peripheral factors affecting the futures market are the progress of trade friction between China and the United States. On November 1, the negotiators of China and the United States called again, and energy and chemical products led by crude oil gave an optimistic response. Although October experienced a decline, PTA and glycol inventory removal effect was very good.

PTA plant carried out maintenance in turn in October. In theory, PTA inventory removal was more than 160000 tons in October after PTA plant maintenance. In terms of glycol, domestic operation rate rebounded weakly, and port inventory continued to fall below the annual low of 600000 tons, significantly lower than last year's average inventory More than 700000 tons, the supply side can still face the market support. Although px-pta has new devices put into production recently, but for the market, it is more than the fall response in October in advance. At present, it is difficult to continue to fall due to the bad situation. However, the new differential energy in glycol is slowly put in. Some coal to glycol devices are mostly delayed, and the short-term supply side pressure is temporarily difficult to recover. No matter px-pta or polyester products, during this period, the whole industrial chain products have entered into the embarrassing state of loss or facing loss. Although the decline of PTA and glycol affects the cost reduction and makes some polyester products benefit better, it is still difficult to change the devaluation of the whole industrial chain. From the aspect of polyester link, at present, the first response is polyester bottle chip factory. From late October, the average load of domestic devices has been around 72%. The traditional peak demand season is coming to an end, terminal demand will continue to decline, polyester inventory will continue to rise in October, and polyester products are facing production losses.

If the loss of polyester production in November increases, Zhongyu information speculates that the probability of polyester plant production reduction in November is large, which is bad for the raw material market. There is a strong bearish expectation for chemicals in the fourth quarter, but after a downward trend in October, the futures market will consume more bearish. If the market returns to the guidance of spot fundamentals, or there is a narrow repair probability, on the periphery, the manufacturing industry in China will improve its outlook on production prospects in the next 12 months, rising to the highest level in six months, but still at a historical low point. The trend of market bearish is Main, stage weak rebound can still be expected.