Port coal prices may not rise enough this winter

At present, the coastal coal transportation is relatively loose, the coal market supply is sufficient, and the power plant inventory is high; it is expected that this winter, the coal consumption of the downstream power plants will not be tense, and the port coal price rise is weak. Plant inventory remains high. From the beginning of the third quarter, the power plant actively stores coal, ensuring that the available days of coal storage can be increased to a high level of 28 days before winter. Even after winter, the daily consumption of power plant increases, but the days of coal storage and availability are still high. In addition, the transportation capacity of the Datong Qinhuangdao, Shuohuang and Mengji lines is sufficient, and the transportation capacity of the supporting ports around the Bohai Sea is improved. The efficiency of coal transportation from west to East and north to south is accelerating. In the case that there is no significant increase in the downstream coal demand, the increase in the number of transportation will boost the coal storage of coastal power plants to maintain a high level, and the demand for electric coal will not be tense in winter. It is about to enter the construction off-season.

As winter approaches, Northeast China, North China and Shandong will successively enter the peak shifting production stage of key industries and the winter construction off-season; after the heating period begins, the environmental protection pressure in the north will increase, and the downstream coal industry will be affected. With the coming of winter, the operating rate of cement, chemical industry and other enterprises will decline, the number of coal consumption will decrease, and the demand for coal in non electric industry will decline. Import coal continues to enter the domestic market. Up to now, there are no more strict measures to restrict the import of coal, except that some regions can not accept customs declaration from other places and territorial customs declaration. After the third quarter, China's import of coal reached a new high, it is expected that in October, China's import of coal will not be less than 25 million tons; if the country does not take strict restrictions or strict management of import coal quotas. In November and December this year, China's imported coal will remain at a high level, which not only replenishes the coal resources, but also aggravates the pressure of supply exceeding demand in the domestic coal market. The coal transportation capacity of the port is sufficient. The coal transportation in the Bohai Sea port is mainly based on Changxie coal, and the number of coal trucks to the port is increasing, and the port inventory is supplemented. In the cold winter, the Bohai Sea port rushed to the annual production task. By strengthening the contact and communication with all parties of the mine, road and avionics, the coal shipment was accelerated. The downstream users timely transported the coal, and the cargo connection was smooth. In the later two months of this year, the user inventory in the coastal areas was supplemented in time. The increase of coal price is limited.

The market coal delivered from the ports around Bohai Sea only accounts for 15-20% of the total amount of the underground coal. Among them, the market coal delivered from Caofeidian port is more than that from Qinhuangdao and Huanghua port. Since the second half of the year, the coal supply and demand in the port market have been weak, and the price has been falling all the way. Under the coal price hanging upside down, the weak traders have exited one after another, and the subsequent coal generation and transportation volume in the market will be reduced. It is expected that by the end of November, driven by demand, the market coal price will stabilize and stop falling, and it is expected to rise slightly; however, affected by the high inventory in each link, the increase is very small, and the coal price is expected to rise 10-20 CNY/ton.