Whether there is competitiveness in the new glycol project

There is a large supply gap. In 2018, the capacity of ethylene glycol in China will be 10.63 million tons / year, of which the total capacity of ethylene line will be 6.32 million tons / year, accounting for 56.7%; the total capacity of coal / syngas line will be 4.1 million tons / year, accounting for nearly 40%. In 2018, China's glycol output was 6.793 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 64%, down 2% year on year. In 2018, China imported 9.542 million tons of ethylene glycol, an increase of 12% year on year. The main importing countries and regions are Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Canada and Singapore. China is the largest glycol demand market in the world. In 2018, the apparent consumption was 16.334 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 41.6%. The market gap is still large. In recent years, China's coal to glycol project has developed rapidly. According to statistics, the current capacity of coal to glycol is about 4.32 million tons / year, and the trend chart is shown in the figure below. In 2018, except for CNOOC and shell, all of them are coal / syngas to glycol. In 2018, eight new projects were put into operation for coal to ethylene glycol, with a new capacity of 1.74 million tons / year, accounting for 81.13% of the new capacity of ethylene glycol in the whole year. It is estimated that the capacity of over 7 million tons / year will be put into operation before the end of 2022, when the capacity of coal to glycol unit will exceed 10 million tons, and the proposed project will reach more than 20 million tons. In the early warning of overcapacity, there is not much time left for the production of glycol from coal / syngas. In the guidance catalogue for industrial structure adjustment (2019 version) recently issued by the national development and Reform Commission, not only the encouragement for the production of glycol from syngas of 200000 tons and above is cancelled, but also the construction of glycol units under 200000 tons is restricted, which has already sounded an alarm for the growth of glycol production capacity. The high-speed expansion of glycol production capacity started last year, and the high-speed expansion of glycol production capacity. At present, there are more than 60 ethylene glycol projects under construction and to be built, with a total capacity of nearly 30 million tons. Most of them are planned to be put into production and completed in 2018-2025, of which about 6 million tons are expected to be added around 2020. There are many large-scale projects in North America, Middle East and South Asia, most of which use cheap ethane as raw material. Due to the breakthrough of shale gas production technology and proximity to oil producing areas and other factors, glycol produced in North America and Middle East has a greater competitive advantage in production cost. Polyester industry is the most important downstream industry of glycol. At present, more than 87% of glycol is used in polyester production. Due to the recovery of textile industry, the main downstream polyester industry of glycol began to recover from the second half of 2016, and 2017-2019 entered the peak of capacity expansion. By the end of 2018, China's polyester production capacity has increased to 54 million tons, equivalent to about 18 million tons of glycol consumption. However, according to the prediction of the insiders, the prosperity of the textile industry will gradually decline from 2019, and the growth rate of polyester production capacity will begin to decline. The demand for glycol in the future is likely to fail to keep up with the growth of production capacity. Therefore, in the face of the competition from the explosive growth of production capacity and the cost advantage of foreign enterprises, there is not much time and space left for coal / syngas to produce glycol. For the coal / syngas to glycol project, it is necessary to keep enough caution. Whether the new glycol project is competitive or not needs careful discussion and careful decision-making.