In October, the total amount of social consumption increased by 7.2%

Just three days after tmall's "double 11" activity broke the record again with a turnover of 268.4 billion yuan in 2019, China's consumption data in October also came out fresh. On November 14, the new office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in October 2019. Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said that from January to October this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 33477.8 billion yuan, up 8.1% year on year. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3810.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year on year, and the consumption of upgraded goods grew rapidly. Specifically, communication equipment and sports and entertainment products of units above the quota increased by 22.9% and 11.5% respectively.

In an interview with daily economic news, Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the Research Institute of China Council for the promotion of international trade, said that the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods fell in October, on the one hand, it was dragged down by the continuous negative growth of automobile consumption; on the other hand, the "double 11" promotion played a role in delaying consumers' shopping behavior, which to some extent led to 10 The monthly data is average. From the economic data released by the National Bureau of statistics, some economic indicators show a downward trend. For example, in October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 8.3%. In the first 10 months of this year, except that the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in April was the same as that in October, the year-on-year growth rate of other single months was higher than that in October. By combing the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, it can be found that in October, according to the types of commodities, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China showed negative growth year-on-year, including automobile, oil and products, cultural office supplies, gold and silver jewelry, clothing, shoes and hats, and needle textiles.

Among them, the total retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry decreased by 4.5% year on year, with the highest drop. The second is automobile, down 3.3% year on year. According to the analysis of some brokers, automobile consumption is still fluctuating at the bottom, which has a drag on the overall consumption, while the decline in the non automobile sector is disturbed by the "Shopping Festival effect" and inflation expectations. In the future, the promotion of "double 11" may boost consumer demand in a phased manner, which will also increase the nominal growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. As a result, nominal consumption data in November may be slightly higher. Zhao Ping told the daily economic news that according to the consumption data in October, the proportion of automobile and oil and products in the total retail sales of social consumer goods is relatively high, and the negative growth of these two kinds of goods will undoubtedly have an impact on the monthly consumption data. However, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in November is likely to usher in a more obvious rebound, which is expected to be about 1 percentage point. In view of the short-term decline of some economic indicators, Liu Aihua said that in October, some indicators fluctuated under the influence of short-term factors, while the current economic situation should be analyzed from the overall situation of January to October, which is more reasonable and objective.

From the perspective of retail sales, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose 8.1% year-on-year from January to October, basically the same as the previous three quarters. From the perspective of internal structure, the daily use category has maintained a relatively rapid growth. Some commodities related to consumption upgrading, including communication equipment category and sports and entertainment category, have maintained a double-digit growth. It should be said that the overall consumption of residents is still relatively active. " Liu Aihua said. The reporter of the daily economic news noted that according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in October, the total retail sales of communication equipment increased by 22.9% year on year; the total retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 11.5% year on year, 15.7% and 4.3% higher than the total retail sales of social consumer goods. According to Zhao Ping, the growth rate of communication equipment commodities has increased significantly, which is closely related to the launch of 5g network. With 5g commercial, mobile phones and other communication products usher in a critical period of update and iteration. With the improvement of people's living standard, the consumption of cosmetics and entertainment products is also rising rapidly.