China's economy: long-term basis, short-term support

In the whole year, the target of new urban employment was over fulfilled in advance; in October, the export increased by 2.1% year on year; the investment in high-tech industry increased by more than 14% year on year On November 14, the National Bureau of statistics released the national economic data for the first 10 months. Although some indicators show short-term fluctuations, the economic report card of the first 10 months is still bright. Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said at the press conference of the new China Development Office on the same day that the main indicators are still operating within a reasonable range, and China's economy has a long-term basis and a short-term support. People usually judge the performance of macro-economy from growth, employment, price, balance of payments and other major indicators. In all these aspects, Liu Aihua said that the main indicators are still operating within a reasonable range. The sustainable development of the three industries. The overall situation of agricultural production this year is good. Grain production is expected to have another good harvest. At the same time, the structure of agricultural production is also continuously adjusted. From January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of the first three quarters.

From January to October, the service industry production index increased by 7%, which was also the same as the previous three quarters, and many service consumption still maintained rapid growth. Domestic demand has steadily increased. From the perspective of retail sales, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose 8.1% year-on-year from January to October, basically equal to the previous three quarters. From the perspective of investment, the growth rate of investment is generally stable at present, among which the investment in high-tech industry has maintained double-digit growth, which has strengthened the potential for the growth and expansion of new driving forces. The employment price is generally stable. In the first 10 months, 11.93 million new urban jobs have been created, exceeding the expected target of 11 million for the whole year in advance. The national urban unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from September. From January to October, CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, still within the expected target of 3% set at the beginning of the year. Foreign investment in foreign trade has improved. In October, exports improved significantly compared with the previous month, from a year-on-year decline last month to a 2.1% increase in October. In terms of foreign investment, the actual use of foreign investment from January to September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, and maintained a rapid growth rate. In addition, the foreign exchange reserves remained above US $3 trillion, an increase over the beginning of the year.

In October, some indicators fluctuated under the influence of short-term factors, but it is more reasonable and objective from the overall situation of January to October. " Liu Aihua said that on the whole, the overall stable and steady economic situation has not changed. In the overall economic performance, the employment index is particularly bright. How to treat the excellent performance of employment under the downward pressure of the economy? Liu Aihua's analysis, first of all, the total effect brought by the continuous expansion of the economic aggregate. In the first three quarters of this year, GDP maintained a medium high growth rate of 6.2%. It is estimated that every 1% increase in the current economy will bring about 2 million jobs. 6.2% economic growth is equivalent to the total employment between 11 million and 12 million. The second factor is structural adjustment. In recent years, China's industrial structure has changed from industry-oriented to service-oriented. By 2018, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP has increased to 52.2%. Compared with industry, service industry has a stronger ability to absorb labor force. There are more and more new businesses supporting flexible employment, and innovation and entrepreneurship are emerging in an endless stream; a series of stable employment policies have been issued, especially to solve the employment of key groups. In addition, in the data of October, CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of last month. Price level affects people's pocket money. How do you think of the 3.8% increase?

Liu Aihua explained that the current price rise continues to show the characteristics of structural rise. As for CPI as a whole, it is mainly driven by food prices. In October, food prices rose 15.5% year on year, driving CPI up 3.05 percentage points. It also shows structural characteristics in the food, with pork price rising the fastest. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 1.5%, the same as last month. Liu Aihua said that the current overall CPI is still in a moderate upward trend. With the implementation of policies and measures related to the recovery of pig production, pig production capacity will gradually recover and pork prices will gradually stabilize. We have the conditions to keep the economy running smoothly. The downward pressure on the economy continues to increase. How to look at the future trend of the economy? Liu Aihua said that in the long run, we have accumulated a solid material foundation. The infrastructure is increasingly perfect, the industrial system is gradually complete, human resources are very rich, high-quality talents are increasing, and the market scale is also growing. China's economy is resilient and has great potential, but also has vigorous vitality. In the short term, there are still many supports for the economy to maintain stable operation. Consumption potential is continuously released. The stable employment situation has brought stable increase in income and laid a very good foundation for improving the quality and capacity of consumption. At present, the retail sales of physical goods maintain a rapid growth, and the growth rate of service consumption continues to be more than 10%, which is faster.

Industrial upgrading has been promoted continuously. From the data in October, the continuous low growth of automobile production this year has also shown signs of improvement. In October, the decline of automobile production narrowed, and the production of SUV, MPV and other models turned from decline to rise, which shows that the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries continue to move forward. The opening vitality is continuously showing. Since this year, China has taken a lot of policy measures to promote the diversification and facilitation of trade and investment. In the case of shrinking global capital flow, the utilization of foreign capital in the first three quarters of this year increased by 6.5% year on year, which shows that China is still a hot spot for foreign investment. Policy effect continues to show. In the first 10 months, there were nearly 20000 new registered enterprises per day in China, which continued to accelerate growth on the basis of last year's rapid growth. The expected index of manufacturing production activity and the expected index of non manufacturing business activity are both in a relatively high boom range. There are also some new signs of improvement in investment this month, indicating that the confidence of enterprises is gradually recovering. In the future, we have the foundation, conditions and confidence to achieve the expected goal of the whole year, and the economy will continue to maintain healthy development. " Liu Aihua said.