Is coal price in the production area expected to stabilize?

On November 15, the latest Ordos mixed coal price index released by Inner Mongolia coal trading center closed at 319 points, down 4 points on a month on month basis, down 1.24%, down 9.88% on a year-on-year basis. From the point of view of the mine mouth price in this period, the price of six specifications "four drops and two leveling", the price of coal with calorific value of 4800kcal / kg and above decreased by 2-5 CNY/ton, the decline narrowed, and the price of other coal with calorific value remained the same. The loose supply situation of pithead market continued. In the near future, due to the stable rebound of port prices and the fermentation of import coal restriction policies, the sentiment of traders in the production area has recovered, and the purchase volume of electric coal has slightly recovered. In addition, the market sentiment of coal mines has also changed. The wait-and-see mood is relatively strong, and the frequency and range of price adjustment have slowed down. Some 5000 kcal coal mines have experienced a tentative increase of 5 CNY/ton. Although the supply of producing area is increasing steadily, the uncertainty of port price trend is strong, and the coal price of producing area is still under pressure.

1. The starting rate of the production area has increased steadily and the supply has increased. After the national day, the operating rate of production areas increased and the production and supply increased. According to data from Inner Mongolia coal trading center, after the national day, the operating rate of production areas gradually increased, from 72% before the national day to a maximum of 75%, while the operating rate of 75% is the highest level this year. According to the latest data of Inner Mongolia trading center, the current operating rate is 74.8%, which is in a high position. The higher operating rate also increases the supply of production areas. But in the current weak demand situation, it is not good for coal price.

2. Traders are rigid in purchasing and have no intention to store coal. Since October, port prices have continued to fall and there is no sign of an end to decline, which has resulted in an increase in the upside down range of ports shipped by traders. According to the data of Inner Mongolia coal trading center, the upside down range of 5500 dacafa port in Ordos increased from 29 CNY/ton in September to 32 CNY/ton in November. On the other hand, with the decline of the port, the coal price of the producing area also fell sharply, which also led to the reduction or postponement of the purchase by the traders. The above two reasons make the demand of traders insufficient and the price of coal under pressure. Third, large enterprises continue to reduce the price of coal. In October, under the negative transmission of the continuous decline of port coal price, the purchasing capacity of small and medium-sized traders declined, the purchasing volume also fell sharply, and the purchasing voice of large enterprises increased significantly. Since October, the purchase price of large-scale enterprises has continued to decline. According to statistics, since October, the purchase price of large-scale enterprises has declined 47 CNY/ton in total, while the price of the 5500 pit in Hubei and Hunan has declined 30 CNY/ton. Large enterprises cut prices sharply, which suppressed the price of coal in the production area. On the whole, in the later stage, with the trend of port price stabilizing, the enthusiasm of traders for transportation will gradually recover, and the coal price of the production area may be expected to stabilize.