Insufficient Support, May Butanol Prices in China Decrease by Nearly 10%

June 2nd news

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of May 31, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China was 6,933 CNY per ton. Compared to May 1 (when the reference price for n-butanol was 7,666 CNY per ton), the price decreased by 733 yuan, a decrease of 9.57%.

I. Review of Price Trends

From the data monitoring system, it can be seen that in May, the n-butanol market in Shandong first experienced a slight increase, but the momentum for further growth was insufficient. The market then entered a one-sided downward trend, with n-butanol prices continuously falling and the decline widening. By May 31st, the n-butanol prices in the Shandong region of China were around 6,900 to 7,100 CNY per ton.

2. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

Supply and Demand Mismatch: Strong Supply, Weak Demand

In early May, the overall supply of n-butanol in the Chinese market was stable, with acceptable supply and demand transmission. As some previously shut-down facilities resumed production, the supply of n-butanol gradually increased. However, the downstream demand market was slow to absorb the increased supply, and purchases of raw materials were cautious, with a weak inventory restocking sentiment. This led to a disruption in the supply and demand transmission, resulting in a situation where supply exceeded demand.

Cost support weakened: In May, the price of propylene, a raw material, fell in tandem, loosening the cost support for n-butanol production. As a result, n-butanol prices were adjusted downward following the raw material price drop, further intensifying the decline.

Market sentiment: Downstream enterprises in China are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, with large-scale inventory replenishment activities decreasing. The market lacks effective demand support, making it easier for prices to fall than to rise.

III. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the supply and demand balance in the n-butanol market in China remains loose and is unlikely to change quickly, with prices likely to remain weak. Going forward, it will be important to monitor changes in the facility utilization rate of n-butanol, as well as the support from the cost side and the recovery of demand in the downstream market.

Technical Analysis

According to Spotcom data, in late May, the 10-day moving average of n-butanol began to fall below the 20-day moving average, and the downward difference gradually widened, predicting that the n-butanol market in China will continue to show a downward trend. Auxiliary indicators show that the price of n-butanol is at the median for the forward (one-year) position, indicating that in the short term, there is still a significant likelihood of a price decrease in the n-butanol market in China. It is recommended to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand information for future market trends.