In the short term, domestic toluene market may continue to fluctuate steadily

Toluene is an important raw material for organic chemical industry. It is colorless and clear liquid. It can be mixed with ethanol, ethanol, acetone, chlorine, carbon disulfide and glacial acetic acid. It is very slightly soluble in water. It is widely used in the production of fine chemicals such as dyes, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, auxiliaries, perfumes, etc. and also in the synthetic material industry. Since the fourth quarter of this year, domestic toluene supply has been tight. Especially in the South China market, Dongguan port inventory continues to be low, or even several times out of stock, which has become an important factor to support the market trend, which also makes the North-South price gap once high. In the near future, the domestic toluene market has seen stable transactions, cautious attitude and low inventory. Recently, the price has declined slightly. Supply side: affected by the tight supply in the East China market, the shortage in the South China market is always difficult to be effectively alleviated. In the middle of November, nearly 9000 tons of toluene cargoes from Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical South China company, PetroChina South China and a large trader arrived at the South China port one after another, which finally eased the supply in the South China market, which has been in a tight state. Naturally, the market price has also been improved and loosened. In a week, the port market price has dropped 200 CNY/ton. For the surge of toluene port inventory in the middle and late November, on the one hand, it is believed that the price difference between the north and the south is large in the early stage, and the supply in the South China market continues to be tight, which makes the merchants see a certain arbitrage opportunity. On the other hand, in this month, CNOOC Huizhou's self-produced toluene will be used for internal oil blending. In order to deliver it to dealers in volume, it can only be supplemented from the surrounding areas or through imports. However, it happens that there is no significant difference between the shipping time of other merchants, which leads to the sharp increase of short-term port inventory. Market situation: in the near future, the domestic toluene market trend is stable, the trading volume changes little, and the port inventory continues to decline. On November 22, price trends in overseas market: reference price of toluene in South Korea is about 655 US dollars / ton, unchanged on the previous trading day; reference price of imports in East China is about 672 US dollars / ton, unchanged on the previous trading day. Domestic price trends: Tianjin Petrochemical Company quoted 5600 CNY/ton, Qilu Petrochemical Company quoted 5600 CNY/ton, Shijiazhuang petrochemical company quoted 5500 CNY/ton, Yangba petrochemical company quoted 5600 CNY/ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical Company quoted 5600 CNY/ton, Maoming Branch quoted 5550 CNY/ton, Wuhan Petrochemical Company quoted 5800 CNY/ton, Changling Petrochemical Company quoted 5800 CNY/ton, Wuhan ethylene quoted 5800 CNY/ton, Shandong Jingbo petrochemical company quoted 5650 CNY/ton. Sinopec's North China, East China and South China enterprises today lowered the price of toluene by about 100-250 CNY/ton. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises is stable today, about 5650 CNY/ton. The quotation of traders in East China is rising, about 5700-5750 CNY/ton. Upstream and downstream: in terms of upstream and crude oil, oil prices have generally fluctuated in recent days. In the downstream, in the TDI sector, the domestic TDI market has been declining in a narrow range recently, and the attitude of the industry tends to be cautious. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills out of the warehouse is 11300-11400 CNY/ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills out of the warehouse is 11600 CNY/ton. It is expected that the TDI market will be weak in the later period. In terms of PX market, the price trend of domestic PX has been temporarily stable in recent days, and the trend of external market has been stable. The price is about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX in the short term will be about 6800 CNY/ton. To sum up, in the future, the supply side of the port is a little loose in the near future, which is bad for the toluene Market in South China, but the inventory also needs to be digested in a certain time. Moreover, the cost of holding goods of large-scale merchants is high, so it is difficult to judge whether they will continue to reduce the price for shipment. Therefore, the short-term market may be weak, and the market operation of merchants should be cautious, and they should continue to focus on the market transaction status and port. The inventory situation, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the weak outlook of global economic indicators are expected to fluctuate the demand for crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the toluene Market in the future will continue to fluctuate steadily. Editor in charge: Li Xiang 1