Coal coking product chain enters the period of bottom seeking adjustment

Near the end of the year, as an important branch of the chemical product chain - coal coking products, after nearly a year of shock adjustment, the price has once again entered a trough. Among them, the prices of coke, methanol, ammonium sulfate, crude benzene and coal tar decreased by 13%, 13%, 14%, 1% and 29% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. On the whole, except for Crude Benzol, which was recovered in the second half of the year, other products showed a trend of fluctuation and decline, and most of the product prices hit a new low in the year. According to the market transaction data statistics of Henan Petroleum and chemical network, the volume of each product in the coal coking industry chain is shrinking, and the transaction price is also at the low level of the whole year. For example, the price of coal tar in Northeast China fell to 2200 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the price of coal to methanol in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia fell to about 1800 yuan.

At present, the industry has a stronger wait-and-see mentality, and the coal coking industry chain product market has entered the adjustment cycle of seeking the bottom. Li Xiaofei, sales manager of Chifeng Boyuan Technology Co., Ltd., said that in the fourth quarter, the downstream product market of coal coking ushered in the off-season. The demand of various products shrank and the price fell. According to reports, coke, the main product of coal coking, rose slightly only in February, may and July, with prices running between 1700 and 1800 yuan for the rest of the time, especially in the fourth quarter, the price began to decline significantly, and reached a new low in November. In addition to the crude benzene price stable at about 4000 yuan in the fourth quarter, which is higher than the annual average price, the prices of methanol, coal tar, ammonium sulfate and other products are in a continuous downward trend, especially coal tar, which has recorded the largest decline of 30% in the year. "In the context of the downstream demand in the off-season, the industry's wait-and-see atmosphere is increasingly strong, which has a negative impact on the whole coal coking industry." Li Xiaofei said. In addition, the environmental inspection has led to the fact that the operating rate of many downstream enterprises has not been effectively improved, which is also one of the main factors affecting the coal coking industry chain market in the future. At the third meeting of the president of Henan Petrochemical Association recently, the heads of coal chemical enterprises reported that the limitation of coal consumption index had a great impact on coal coking enterprises, especially in the fourth quarter, most of the enterprises' annual coal consumption index had been basically used up, and faced with many problems such as production restriction, production suspension, etc., production cost increased greatly, and product price was in a low period.

In this context, new projects of coal coking and downstream deep processing are forced to be postponed, and the new demand is expected to fail. Li Xiaofei said that at present, the coal coking product market began to enter a period of bottom adjustment, which is also a key period for the game of positive and negative factors. Only when a new market equilibrium point is formed, the whole industrial chain will be able to usher in a recovery. It is expected that this cycle will continue to the first quarter of next year. The reporter learned from the coking enterprises in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places that as the source of coking industry, the coking coal market is basically in a low shock consolidation this year. In addition to the short rebound in August in Shanxi, most regions have a weak market. Since October, the coking coal market in Shanxi, East China and other regions has continued to decline, with the price falling to a lower level in two years. For example, the transaction price of Shandong coking coal fell to about 900 yuan. In addition, in order to protect the environment, the open-air storage and control of coking coal are strict, and the enthusiasm of coal mine delivery is high, while the inventory of coking steel enterprises is high, and they have strong willingness to reduce the price of coking coal, and the inventory pressure of most coal mines is increased. It is expected that the price of coking coal will not recover in a short period of time, which cannot bring cost support to downstream products.

Entering into the period of just need sorting this year, affected by occasional safety accidents and in-depth environmental protection verification, the deep processing enterprises in the downstream of coal coking in all regions are faced with strict production restriction requirements, and low demand has become a major feature of the coking industry this year, especially since the second half of the year, the trading volume of coking products in all regions has declined significantly. According to statistics of Henan Petroleum and chemical network, from January to September, the coke output was about 354.35 million tons, up 6.3% year on year, while the downstream demand did not increase significantly, resulting in the increase of coke inventory pressure and the decline of coke price. The futures price of coke fell from 2000 yuan in September to about 1700 yuan in November, and the prices of other products such as coking ammonium sulfate and coal tar continued to decline. In addition, Henan, Jiangsu and other places issued the National IV transport vehicles are not allowed to enter the urban area in a limited period of time, which has a great impact on the export of chemical products, and the coal coking products are also difficult to improve themselves. But the macroeconomic level is good. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.7% year-on-year in October, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.2% year-on-year; from January to October, the investment in fixed assets increased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the investment in real estate development increased by 10.3% year-on-year. In the face of the complicated international situation and the downward pressure of domestic economy, the economy generally maintains stable operation. The steady growth policy is still expected to continue to make efforts to support the economic bottom recovery. Market participants said that after one year's adjustment, the products of coal coking industry chain basically entered the period of bottom supply and demand balance, that is, the period of just need to be sorted out, which is also a good foundation at the technical level. Some coal chemical products have shown signs of stabilization and recovery. For example, crude benzene has rebounded to the bottom after entering the middle of November. Other markets, such as coke, methanol, coal tar, ammonium sulfate and so on, have been running steadily. The whole industrial chain is in the bottom-up stage of the bottom seeking adjustment period.