Both sides of coal and electricity are waiting for long-term negotiation

In the new week, today's domestic power coal market is generally stable, with a small increase in some parts. In terms of origin, the price of some coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province has been increased by 10 CNY/ton since the weekend, the mixed coal price of a state-owned coal mine in Yuyang District has been increased by 10 CNY/ton to 335 CNY/ton, and the face coal price of a local coal mine has been increased by 10 CNY/ton to 410 CNY/ton. The surface coal in Yulin area mainly flows to Shanxi coking enterprises. Last week, the coke in many places in Shanxi increased by 50 CNY/ton, and the operating rate of coking enterprises in Jinzhong, Yuncheng and other places was at a high level. A wave of periodic replenishment demand appeared in downstream enterprises, which temporarily formed favorable support for Yulin surface coal market.

The prices of most coal mines in Ordos remained stable, and the prices of individual coal mines rose and fell with each other. With the support of civil demand, the prices of lump coal increased steadily. Due to the large inventory pressure, the prices of Mo coal decreased by 10 CNY/ton. In terms of northern ports, at present, the spot trading is mainly between the middle and low calorific value coal types, the quotation of traders continues to rise slightly, the transaction price is temporarily stable, the main closing price of 5000 kcal coal is 485 CNY/ton, and the main closing price of 5500 kcal coal is 550 CNY/ton. The power coal market in South China is weak and stable. Near the end of the year, more and more coal mines in the South have strengthened their safety production inspection. In order to do a good job of coal mine safety production at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, from the beginning of November to the end of December, Sichuan province carried out a special supervision action of centralized treatment of hidden dangers for 50 days for key state-owned coal mines in the whole province; in order to do a good job of coal mine safety production at the end of the year, Jiangsu province carried out a monthly and weekly inspection of key coal mines in the supervision area.

Due to the high stock of coal in all links in the south, it is expected that strict safety inspection will have limited support for coal price. In terms of downstream demand, data shows that as of November 18, the inventory of six major coastal power plants was 16.8557 million tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 317200 tons; the daily consumption was 591200 tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 3600 tons; the available days were 28.5 days, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 0.5 days. With the opening of heating season in the north, heating energy supply has been widely concerned. The national development and Reform Commission recently revealed that in this heating season, China's energy supply and demand are generally balanced, but may be affected by factors such as continuous large-scale extremely cold weather, and there is a certain pressure on supply and demand balance in some regions, some varieties and peak hours. Through the full and solid work of supply guarantee in the early stage, as well as the targeted increase of regulation and guarantee during the heating season, the peak winter can be successfully met.

According to the relevant person in charge of the national development and Reform Commission, the current coal supply and demand is generally balanced. During the heating season, the coal demand for power generation and heating in Northeast China has increased significantly. The power supply is relatively abundant, and the balance of power supply and demand needs to be strengthened in a few regions. With the centralized release of heating gas demand, the task of gas supply guarantee in peak period is relatively heavy. The market's response to the further tightening of measures to restrict coal imports was muted. Last week, the market again heard the news that the restrictions on imported coal were becoming stricter, which was confirmed by many parties. However, in the next two or three days, the response of the spot power coal market in the northern port was not surprising, and the purchase and sale of spot power coal and the price kept stable. The reason for this may be that "horizontal control" measures have been known for a long time, and it is expected that the measures to restrict the import of coal will be further tightened.

In addition, some customs have taken similar measures before, and the market has "visual fatigue" on the changes of the measures to restrict the import of coal, and doubts about the rigidity of the measures. Most of them think that the measures will bring positive effects to the domestic power coal market The impact was lower than expected. Near the end of the year, 2020 electricity coal price negotiation enters a critical period. The 2020 national coal trade fair will be held in Rizhao City, Shandong Province on December 4, and the negotiation between the coal and electricity parties on the purchase, sale and price of electric coal in 2020 will also enter a critical period. In view of the large gap between the two sides in the determination of the basic price of the 2020 annual long-term agreement on electric coal, it is expected that the game between the two sides will be very fierce, and both sides will do their best to influence the northern port in the near future The trend of spot coal price is to strive for the initiative in the price negotiation of electric coal in 2020. Under the background that the price trend and price level are favorable for power generation enterprises, power generation enterprises may take measures or measures to limit the rebound of spot coal price in northern ports by means of digesting inventory.