Weak coal price rise this month, weak supply and demand in the market

In November, although the control of import coal quota was tightened and the quantity of imported coal arrived was reduced, the domestic coal market is now turning better. However, due to the late implementation of the favorable policy, and it has just been implemented. At present, the role played by the policy is limited, and the number of ships arriving at the north port to transport coal has not increased significantly. After the port market coal price bottomed out, it still shows a weak trend of both supply and demand. Over the past half of November, North China, Inner Mongolia, northeast and other places in China have entered the heating season, and the daily consumption of power plants has increased; however, the temperature in South China is on the high side, and the temperature in East China has risen again after falling, and the civil power has not fully developed, making little contribution to the increase of coal consumption.

In spite of the decrease of rain water and the decrease of hydropower output in South China, the number of coal pulling channels has increased; in addition, a small amount of imported coal has arrived in succession, and the coal transfer in quantity of power plants along the coast and along the river in South China is generally higher than the consumption quantity, resulting in the high inventory. Up to now, the coal storage capacity of national key power plants is still around 95 million tons, while the total coal storage capacity of six coastal power plants is 16.58 million tons, and the coal storage days are up to 25 days. The supply of coal in the producing area is sufficient. Due to the lack of downstream demand, some coal mines began to fix production or change working face for maintenance. In addition, to ensure safety at the end of the year, the supply of coal in the producing area was slightly tightened. Although the demand of some regions has improved in the near future, the overall inventory is still at the middle level, and the resource supply is relatively stable. After two coal mine accidents happened in Shanxi and Shandong, the market bullish expectation increased, some port traders were reluctant to sell, and the quotation slightly increased; however, due to the high downstream inventory and weak demand, the counter offer price was low, and the actual transaction was limited. Influenced by the information of import coal restriction, port inquiry increased slightly, but the actual transaction situation was general. At present, the upstream and downstream have different views on the coal market.

The upstream offer is firm, while the downstream offer is low, and the two sides are stuck. Although restrictions on imports have some effect, it is mainly psychological impact. The terminal power plant inventory is still high, and the overall procurement demand is a little high; the port coal trade is not active, the overall procurement and haulage enthusiasm is not high, and the supporting role of coal price is limited. In the first ten days of November, the pressure of supply exceeding demand in the coal market was not small, and the price of coal fell slightly. In the middle of the year, after the introduction of measures to restrict the import of coal, it has certain effect; however, due to the impact of high inventory of power plants, most of the main power plants are in the stage of active consumption of inventory. In the middle and late ten days, the market coal price of 5000 kcal has increased by 5 CNY/ton in total, and the coal price of 5500 kcal is still unchanged, and the overall coal price is weak. Throughout November, although the market shows signs of improvement, the coal price is mainly stable, which is better in the middle and last ten days than in the first ten days. In the later period, the market trend and coal price change need to wait and see the end of the year to ensure safety, the supply of main production areas, and the coal consumption of power plants.