This report is compiled based on the latest publicly available MIBK spot data as of September 20, 2026. The current MIBK mean difference signal indicates a weak (bearish) oscillating state, with prices at a high level and limited room for further increases. The reduction in the price of upstream acetone, leading to a loosening of cost support, may suppress future market conditions. It is recommended to monitor the supply and demand dynamics of the industry chain and inventory changes.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Indicator | Value as of September 20, 2026 | Value as of September 19, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Moving Average (D5) | -40.00 | -106.67 | + |
| 10-day Moving Average (D10) | -156.66 | -33.33 | - |
| 20-day Moving Average (D20) | 1370.00 | 1475.84 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (+, -, -), which align with the characteristics of a weak rebound (bearish) signal in a consolidation range in China.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current MIBK price trend is oscillating (with a bearish bias). The reason is that the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not completely consistent, and there is no clear unilateral trend signal where all three are either positive or negative, which meets the criteria for an oscillating market. The current signal is biased towards the bears.
IV. Positional Space Reference
MIBK 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the 5th tier (high position) out of 5 tiers in China, with limited room for further increases, and there is a need to be cautious about the risk of subsequent price declines.
V. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
VI. Industry Chain Dynamics Reference
Upstream raw material end: In mid-September, the price of acetone continued to decline. Sino-Saudi Tianjin Petrochemical's acetone quotation was reduced by 400 CNY/ton to 8900 CNY/ton, and High Chemical Materials' acetone quotation was reduced by 400 CNY/ton to 9300 CNY/ton. The phenol and acetone units are operating normally, and the cost support has somewhat weakened.
Spot market: On September 17, the mainstream negotiation price for MIBK in East China's bulk water self-pickup market was between 13,500 and 13,600 CNY per ton. The 50,000-ton annual MIBK facility at Anhui Zhonghui is operating normally, with moderate inventory and limited spot sales.
Data Explanation
The most recent data currently available is as of September 20, 2026; real-time data is recommended.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
