In late November, the price of national secondary coke rose by 13.9 CNY/ton

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics on December 4, in late November, the price of national coke (secondary coke) was 1649.7 CNY/ton, up 13.9 CNY/ton or 0.8% from the previous period, the first increase since mid October. In recent years, environmental protection management and control in some areas of Shanxi and Shaanxi have been strengthened, and the production limit of coke enterprises is about 30-50%; meanwhile, the capacity reduction of coke ovens in Shandong and Hebei is gradually implemented, and the supply end may be tightened compared with the earlier stage. Affected by this, after the rising of 50 CNY/ton for coke enterprises represented by the main producing area, the willingness of coke enterprises to join in the rising price was strengthened, and some coke enterprises increased 100 CNY/ton. At present, the first round of increase of coke is basically on the ground. However, although the downstream steel plants have strong production enthusiasm, the coke inventory in the plant is still at the middle and high level, and the status of on-demand procurement is still maintained. In some steel plants, due to the strict production restriction of some coke enterprises in the production area and the unsatisfactory arrival quantity, the coke inventory in the plant has slightly decreased, and more coke enterprises intend to increase the inventory properly.

In terms of traders, the coke inventory of the port has declined a little in the near future, mainly due to the fact that traders are mainly on the lookout in the near future. Although there are inquiries, the purchase intention is still not strong, and port resources are mostly sent to Nanfang steel works normally. Affected by the rising futures market, the market sentiment improved, and the port inquiry situation increased significantly. The port quotation increased by 30-50 CNY/ton to varying degrees. Now, the port quasi one spot exchange self offered quotation has increased to about 1750-1800 CNY/ton, but the transaction price is still low. However, the state of mind of coke enterprises is good, inventory is down, and spot market sentiment is improving. On the whole, the supply of coke has shrunk compared with the previous period, but the range is limited and the regional production is mostly reduced. According to the continuous tracking data of Fenwei production, transportation and sales, as of November 29, 2019, the operating rate of 60 coking enterprises with 110 million tons of production capacity increased slightly this week, and the weekly to environmental ratio increased by 0.07%. The coke inventory in the coke plant decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the weekly to ring ratio decreased by 9.6%. Coke's profits picked up this week, with a 72.5% increase in the weekly to ring ratio. As of November 29, 2019, the total inventory of the two ports in Shandong Province is 3.81 million tons, with a decrease of 0.26% in the weekly to environmental ratio. The operation rate of blast furnace is about 65.8% and the ratio of circumference to annulus is about 0.5%. The available days of coke stock in the sample point steel plant increased slightly, and the cycle to cycle ratio increased about 0.5%. It can be seen from the above situation that the price of coke is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term. However, some analysis shows that the increase of coke price in this round is caused by the improvement of short-term terminal demand and the expected re fermentation of coking capacity removal, but the rebound space of coke price is limited. From the perspective of coke inventory structure, the coke inventory of steel plant, port trade and coking plant has accumulated obviously. Once the downstream demand becomes weak, Coke will enter the downward channel again.