In November, M2 increased 8.2% year on year, and RMB 1.39 trillion new loans

On December 10, the central bank released financial statistics, social financing scale stock and incremental data for November. Data shows that in November 2019, the growth rate of broad money (M2) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, 0.2% lower than that of the end of last year, 0.2% higher than that of the same period of last year; narrow money (M1) increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 0.2% and 2% higher than that of the end of last year and the same period of last year respectively. It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of M1 in November reached a new high in nearly five months; the growth rate of social financing stock was the same as that of last month, both of which were 10.7%. In this regard, Chen Ji, a senior researcher at the financial research center of Bank of communications, believes that the growth rate of credit is stable and the financing structure is slowly improving. M1 low hovered and picked up slightly, and the central bank's liquidity regulation is still mainly stable. The short-term liquidity will have seasonal support, and there is the possibility of incremental investment across the years. Specifically, at the end of November, M2 balance was 196.14 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month, 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the same period of last year; M1 balance was 56.25 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, 0.2 and 2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year; M0 balance was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year. The net cash invested in the month was 57.8 billion yuan.

Every reporter noted that the growth rate of M1 in November reached a new high in nearly five months. Compared with M1 and M2 in the first 11 months of this year, data shows that M1 in the first 11 months of 2019 increased by 0.4%, 2%, 4.6%, 2.9%, 3.4%, 4.4%, 3.1%, 3.4%, 3.4%, 3.3% and 3.5% year on year respectively. M2 increased by 8.4%, 8%, 8.6%, 8.5%, 8.5%, 8.5%, 8.1%, 8.2%, 8.4%, 8.4% and 8.2% respectively year on year. Mingming, chief analyst of fixed income of CITIC Securities, believes that the year-on-year growth rate of M2 recorded 8.2% in November, an increase of 0.2 percentage points on year-on-year basis and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points on month-on-month basis. M1 recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points and a month on month increase of 0.2 percentage points. The 8.2% M2 growth rate corresponds to the deposit increment of about 1580 billion yuan. This month's financial deposit basically conforms to the seasonal rule (minus 245.1 billion yuan). The sum of the two is basically the same as the deposit increment, suggesting that the impact of debt replacement is small. At present, M2's growth rate is low, while M1's growth margin is up: M1's growth rate is confirmed by short-term loans. "M1 low hovered and picked up slightly, and the central bank's liquidity regulation is still dominated by stability. M1 in November rebounded 0.2 percentage points from last month to 3.5%. However, historically, the growth rate of M1 is still at a low level, which largely reflects that the strength of monetary policy in the credit end still needs to be strengthened and the business vitality needs to be improved. " Chen Ji further pointed out that the growth rate of M2 was basically stable, down 0.2 percentage points, which may be due to various reasons, including the slowdown of bond issuance at the end of the year and the less than expected fiscal expenditure at the end of the year.

Generally speaking, the basic stability of generalized liquidity will lay the foundation for policy making at the beginning of next year. It is worth mentioning that at the end of November, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 157.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9% year on year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 151.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year. The growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month, 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. In November, RMB loans increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1387 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, loans from the household sector increased by 683.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 214.2 billion yuan, medium-term and long-term loans increased by 468.9 billion yuan; loans from non-financial enterprises and organizations increased by 679.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 164.3 billion yuan, medium-term and long-term loans increased by 420.6 billion yuan, bill financing increased by 62.4 billion yuan; loans from non banking financial institutions increased by 27.4 billion yuan. Zhao Wei, chief macro bond researcher at Changjiang Securities Research Institute, said new credit was higher than the same period last year and market expectations. In November, new loans reached 1.39 trillion yuan, higher than the market average of 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 1387 billion yuan over the same period last year; the stock growth rate was 12.4%, the same as last month. According to the preliminary statistics, the growth rate of social financing stock was the same as that of last month.

At the end of November, the stock of social financing scale was 221.28 trillion yuan, up 10.7% year on year. Every reporter noted that the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in November was the same as that of last month. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of social financing scale and stock from January to November 2019 is 10.4%, 10.1%, 10.7%, 10.4%, 10.6%, 10.9%, 10.7%, 10.7%, 10.8%, 10.7% and 10.7%, respectively. From the perspective of structure, at the end of November, the balance of RMB loans granted to the real economy accounted for 68% of the stock of social financing scale in the same period, 1.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the balance of foreign currency loans granted to the real economy accounted for 1% lower than the same period last year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of entrusted loans accounted for 5.2% lower than the same period last year, 1.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of trust loans accounted for 3.4% lower than the same period last year, 0.5 percentage points The current balance of bank acceptance bills accounts for 1.5%, 0.4% lower than the same period last year; the balance of corporate bonds accounts for 10.4%, 0.2% higher than the same period last year; the balance of local government special bonds accounts for 4.3%, 0.7% higher than the same period last year; the balance of domestic stocks of non-financial enterprises accounts for 3.3%, 0.2% lower than the same period last year.

Fan Ruoying, a researcher at the International Financial Research Institute of the Bank of China, told reporters that in terms of the total amount, the growth rate of social financing stock remained stable, equal to the previous period. In terms of structure, on the one hand, the support of bank credit is strengthening. As of the end of November, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy has increased by 12.5% year on year, accounting for 68% of the stock of social financing scale in the same period, increasing by 1.1 percentage points year on year. On the other hand, the off balance sheet financing has continued to shrink, with entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills all decreasing year on year Situation. From the perspective of social financing growth, the total increase of social financing scale from January to November was 21.23 trillion yuan, 3.43 trillion yuan more than the same period of last year. In November, the scale of social financing increased by 1.75 trillion yuan, 150.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. According to Chen Ji's analysis, according to the current pace of financing demand, it is unlikely that the central bank will rapidly increase liquidity investment to boost m2. And CPI breaks through again, monetary policy will slow down even if it needs to work. Of course, the 1 trillion local special bond plan issued in advance at the end of the year was actually issued in December. Under the pressure of payment from subscription agencies, the central bank has the possibility of using quantitative instruments in advance, such as reducing the standard. In the future, the credit investment structure of residents and enterprises may be inclined to enterprises. Under the background of stable growth and interest rate reduction, the real estate regulatory policies implemented by the city may form a certain support for the demand of residents' loans.