Summary of power coal market in 2019 and market outlook in 2020

In 2019, the power coal market will further change from "tight balance" to "wide balance" along with the supply and demand structure. For example, as predicted in the 2018 annual report by Yimei Research Institute, the market price center will fall below the Yellow range of 600 CNY/ton, and the operation range is 550-650 CNY/ton. In terms of supply, the de capacity is basically coming to an end, the newly added capacity is put into use at an accelerated speed, and the output is significantly increased year on year. In addition, the large amount of imported coal is driven by the huge price difference at home and abroad, and the supply is further relaxed. In the field of demand, the macro-economy is under pressure, the growth rate of power generation and consumption is declining. In addition, hydropower and new energy substitution exceed expectations, the growth rate of power coal consumption is significantly reduced. Although cement and coal chemical industry are slightly increased, the growth rate of overall power coal consumption is lower than that of supply. The supply and demand situation has been further relaxed, and the price center of 5500k closing position in northern port is 592 CNY/ton. For the power coal market in 2020, Yimei Research Institute believes that: in the macro aspect, under the circumstances of large uncertainty of external demand and insufficient endogenous power, the downward pressure of economy still exists, but it is worth noting that with the expected improvement of Sino US trade frictions, the restoration of import and export data, the rebound of manufacturing investment growth, the reverse cycle adjustment of infrastructure construction and the bottoming of consumption, the whole second half of 2020 The economic situation will gradually improve.

At the same time, in 2020, as the key year to realize the well-off society in an all-round way and the final acceptance year of the "two doubling" goal, the strength and role of macro counter cyclical adjustment will be further strengthened. We expect that the economic growth rate in 2020 will remain at about 6%. In the field of supply: in China, the task of capacity removal was basically completed in 2018. In 2020, as the final year of capacity replacement, it is expected that the production and construction capacity will reach 5 billion tons, and the output will also grow synchronously, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% to 3.89 billion tons. In terms of import, with the fall of domestic price center, the advantage of huge price difference is no longer available. However, under the condition of import balance control year on year, it is estimated that although the import volume will fall in 2020, it will remain at about 270 million tons. In the field of consumption: in the field of electricity, the growth rate of power generation is expected to remain at about 4%, but influenced by new energy and other alternatives, the growth rate of thermal power is expected to be about 3%; in the field of cement and metallurgy, under the support of infrastructure construction and the boost of real estate demand, the growth rate of cement demand is expected to remain at about 4%, the output will reach 2.4 billion tons, and the consumption of metallurgical coal will also increase slightly; in the field of chemical industry, the growth rate of consumption is expected to be 30 million tons, and the consumption of bulk coal will be reduced The total coal consumption increased slightly by 0.4%. In the field of Logistics: the transit railway continues to advance, and the railway transportation keeps growing. However, with the opening of Haoji railway and the increase of consumption area moving to the west, the demand for coal transportation from the west to the East decreases.

For the coastal market, it is expected that the development capacity of Haoji railway will exceed 20 million tons in 2020, which has a significant impact on the market of Haijin river. In terms of price: under the expectation of loose supply and demand structure, the price center will further move down to 530-540 CNY/ton, and the annual operation range is 500-580 CNY/ton. An important chapter of "2019 power coal market summary and 2020 Market Outlook" 2019 power coal market summary 2020 macro market outlook 2020 coal supply outlook 2020 coal demand outlook 2020 coal logistics outlook 2020 power coal market outlook focus questions what changes have taken place in the current market pattern of 2019 power coal? How will these changes affect the coal market in 2020? 2020 Where will the coal market go in 2020? Can the domestic output meet the expectation of the 13th five year plan? Can the import market continue the huge price difference advantage? How will the downstream consumption structure evolve? Can the coal chemical industry hold up the "one day"? How big can the Haoji railway overturn the logistics pattern? Will the coastal market fall below the lower limit of the green zone? What's the thinking now in 2020 Road operation? E-coal information is the information platform of e-commerce platform e-coal.com under ruimaotong.

Its research institute has been engaged in the field of power coal for decades, providing diversified and personalized information services for industrial customers, as well as current strategic support. The Research Institute focuses on the research of coal industry chain, with the positioning of a third-party research institution, and now has established close cooperation with the development and Reform Commission, coal transportation and Marketing Association, securities and futures research institutions, etc., which can provide diversified, personalized and customized information services for platform industry customers, and has great industry influence. Based on the deep analysis of the power coal market in 2018, Yimei Research Institute has carried out a comprehensive, multi angle and deep-seated analysis and outlook for the power coal market in 2019, and has compiled into a volume for the first time, and issued the power coal market report 2018, which has been widely praised by customers since its launch. The 2018 annual report of Yimei Research Institute, through in-depth analysis of the current market logic changes, goes deep into the global and domestic supply and demand The evolution of the pattern, the sorting of logistics channels, the deduction of the current price trend in 2019, the grasp of the structural contradiction between supply and demand, and the qualitative and quantitative professional analysis are given. In the 2018 power coal market report, it is successfully predicted that the price center will further move down in 2019, the average market coal price will fall below 600 CNY/ton and enter the Yellow range, with the operating range of 550-650 CNY/ton. In response to the wide demand of market customers, Yimei Research Institute revised the 2019-2020 power coal market analysis report and outlook, adding more new content than the 2018 power coal market report.