Coal price or increase will be narrowed in the slack period of Spring Festival

In the first ten days of this month, affected by Blizzard weather and cost inversion, the coal production and transportation volume in the production area decreased, the coal transportation port around the Bohai Sea continued to be tight, and the structural imbalance of low sulfur and high-quality coal appeared. Affected by the increase of civil power load and the replenishment of some power plants, some power plants in East China are highly motivated to pull and transport, while traders are more inclined to hold up prices, and the prices of some high-quality coal have slightly increased by taking advantage of the trend, boosting the price of port power coal. The traditional flat period of Spring Festival is coming. It is expected that the port coal price increase will narrow this week and stabilize before the arrival of Spring Festival.

The market will enter a flat period. With the coming of the traditional coal off-season Spring Festival, part of the coal mines in production have entered into a long holiday, reducing the supply of domestic trade market. Downstream demand will also weaken, and some end users will stop production and have holidays from the end of this week. It is expected that the daily consumption of coastal power plants will decrease from the end of this week; under the condition that Changxie coal is enough, users will reduce the quantity of coal purchased in the market and reduce the price of counter offer.

Downstream will enter holiday mode. The Spring Festival came early this year, and the market entered a low period ahead of time. The annual Spring Festival period (from the first week before the festival to the 15th day of the first month) is the annual low point of the coal market, especially the seven days of the Spring Festival. The daily coal consumption of the six coastal power plants will be reduced to about half of the normal situation. This year's Spring Festival is January 25, and it is expected that starting this weekend, some downstream industrial enterprises will start to enter the mode of shutdown and holiday, and the industrial power load will drop.

Upstream supply is slowly decreasing. The Spring Festival holiday has a great impact on the coal industry, especially this year's Lunar New Year is earlier than previous years, and it is also the time of high-pressure inspection of coal mine safety supervision, affecting coal sales and shipment. Some coal mines began to stop production and have holidays one after another. In addition, there are many snowfall weather in the production area recently, and the automobile transportation and sales are severely restricted, resulting in the coal mine top warehouse, production suspension and production reduction, the production area supply is tightened, and the transportation volume of Daqin line is sharply reduced.

The deal is in a trough. During the Spring Festival, traders shut down and some coal stations shut down for holidays; while downstream industrial enterprises also take long holidays, the demand for coal decreases, and the coal market shows a weak trend of supply and demand. No matter the daily consumption of power plant, downstream demand, upstream supply and railway shipment quantity are all declining. In addition, the import coal is about to land and a large number of customs clearance, and some electric power enterprises will arrange the import coal after the opening of February; near the new year, the demand of power plants will be dominated by Changxie coal and imported coal, and the demand for spot coal is not high. During the long Spring Festival holiday, the market coal trade has entered a low period, with sporadic transactions and stable market coal prices.