The international oil price rebounded

Crude oil prices fell for a second straight week as signs of still ample supply offset optimism from the signing of the international trade agreement. US gasoline and distillate inventories have increased by more than 40 million barrels in the past three weeks, transforming the market from a crude oil glut to a refined oil glut. The increase in refined oil inventories exceeded market expectations, and with the arrival of spring, the surplus of refined oil may further intensify, thus putting pressure on oil prices. However, at the beginning of Asian market on Monday (January 20), oil prices opened higher, and the main contract of US crude oil reached US $59.77/barrel at one time, an increase of 2%, as the pipeline of Libya's largest oil field was closed by protesters before peace talks last weekend, or the oil supply was interrupted. Libya's oil production has fallen from 1.17 million barrels a day to about 800000 barrels a day since the eastern military commander Khalifa haftar blocked exports from ports under his control, according to the Libyan national oil company. This week, EIA, OPEC and OPEC all released monthly reports on the crude oil market.

Although two reports slightly raised demand expectations, three reports expressed deep concern about the increase in production in the United States, overall supply problems and inventory pressure, which also suppressed oil market sentiment. Among them, EIA said in the monthly short-term energy outlook report that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2020 is expected to increase by 80000 barrels / day to 1.34 million barrels / day, but the crude oil production in the United States is expected to increase by 120000 barrels / day to 13.3 million barrels / day in 2020. OPEC monthly report shows that its crude oil production in December decreased by 161000 barrels / day to 29.44 million barrels / day, increased the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2020 by 140000 barrels / day to 1.22 million barrels / day, and increased the growth rate of crude oil supply in 2020 by 180000 barrels / day to 2.35 million barrels / day. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly report maintained the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2020, maintaining 1.2 million barrels / day; however, IEA predicted that the global crude oil inventory would still rise substantially in the first half of 2020, even if OPEC steadily pushed forward the production reduction agreement. Judging from the performance of oil prices this week, the wording of the three monthly reports is relatively cautious and has little impact on oil prices, but analysts expect that there may be room for upward revision of oil prices in the middle line. Returning to the domestic refined oil market, the recent decline of international crude oil price is undoubtedly good news for domestic refined oil. According to the analysts of Zhuo Chuang information refined oil, influenced by the trend of international oil price, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil fluctuates and widens within the positive range, and then enters the negative range for operation, but the price adjustment range is less than 50 CNY/ton. The first adjustment of domestic refined oil price in 2020 Finally, it starts with a run. At present, the price of domestic oil products is expected to be reduced by 160 CNY/ton on February 1st. However, with the support of Spring Festival holiday demand, the market price of oil products is basically stable.