OPEC + Joint Technical Committee will meet in Vienna from February 4-5

The CSRC has decided to suspend the night trading of futures from February 3, 2020, and the specific recovery time will be notified separately. According to the central bank, in order to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system and the stable operation of the money market in the special period of epidemic prevention and control, on February 3, 2020, the people's Bank of China will launch a 1.2 trillion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation to invest funds to ensure the sufficient supply of liquidity. The overall liquidity of the banking system is 900 billion yuan more than that of the same period last year. As of February 2, 2020, there are 85 iron ore ships to be unloaded in China, an increase of 1972600 tons and 11.0 ships compared with yesterday. On February 2, the social inventory of major steel products in China was 15.0449 million tons, an increase of 3.1967 million tons compared with January 23, an increase of 5.7066 million tons compared with last month; the total inventory of deformed steel products was 7.7568 million tons.

On February 1, the comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration issued the notice on coal supply guarantee during the epidemic prevention and control period. The notice pointed out that we should coordinate the epidemic prevention and control, and do a good job of returning to work and production. We will give priority to coal supply in key areas of the epidemic and in Northeast China, Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan. Strictly implement the coal medium and long-term contract and the pricing mechanism of "benchmark price + floating price", and prohibit any price increase beyond the contract. The impact of the epidemic on the coal industry is mainly due to the decline of transportation and marketing efficiency and the delay of demand release. Epidemic prevention may affect the efficiency of coal transportation by road / across provinces and the supply and price of coal in consumption areas; the postponement of commencement of the whole society is equivalent to prolonging the "Spring Festival effect" of demand. According to the comparative analysis of historical data, it is expected that coal demand will decline more in a short term, but with the stability of the epidemic and the recovery of downstream construction, the impact of the epidemic will be difficult to sustain for a short time.

National Bureau of Statistics: China's coke output in December was 38.88 million tons, up 1.8% year on year. China's coke output in January December was 47.126 million tons, up 5.2% year on year. According to the Bureau of statistics, in December, the output of raw coal was 330 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points lower than that of last month; the daily average output was 10.7 million tons, a decrease of 440000 tons on a month on month basis. The exploration report of lead and zinc mine in naopo mining area, Huayuan County, Hunan Province, submitted by 407 geological team of non ferrous Hunan Province, has passed the review and filing recently. The total amount of zinc ore and zinc + associated lead metal of the project is 178.29 million tons, 2.94 million tons, including 2.27 million tons of industrial ore body zinc + associated lead metal and 22.2 million tons of associated cadmium resources. After the mining enterprise obtains the mining right, it will process 5 million tons of ore per year for large-scale mining, and the service life of the mine can reach 15 years, which will produce better social and economic benefits. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Norilsk Nickel reported that nickel production rose 8% to 61739 tons and copper production increased 5% to 127148 tons.

According to the data of Chile's National Bureau of Statistics (INE), Chile's copper output in December 2019 was 554953 tons, an increase on a month on month basis. In November, the copper output was 504349 tons, a decrease of 1.1% on a year-on-year basis. In December 2018, the copper output was 560903 tons. Production of copper and copper alloy products fell 8.2% to 60146 tons in December from a year earlier, according to the Japan Copper Association. In 2019, the year-on-year output dropped 8.1% to 753005 tons, the second year of decline. Crude oil international crude oil futures fell on Friday and fell for the fourth consecutive week. The outbreak has spread to about 20 countries, killing more than 200 people. According to the report released by the CFTC on January 31, as of January 22 to January 28, the euro's bearish intention increased; crude oil's bearish intention decreased, and crude oil's speculative net bull decreased by 58806 contracts to 461762 contracts, indicating investors' desire to bearish crude oil decreased. OPEC sources said that OPEC + Joint Technical Committee will meet in Vienna from February 4 to 5. Due to concerns about the impact of new pneumonia on consumption, the global risk appetite declined significantly. During the festival, risk assets such as external stock market, copper, crude oil and so on corrected sharply.

The sharp drop in crude oil has pushed down the cost of chemicals. Epidemic prevention will delay the rework and affect the production and operation rate. And chemical industry is generally in the period of large-scale production expansion, and price downward pressure is generally large. Libya's crude oil supply suffered a major blow. The country's two major oil fields have been declared closed due to force majeure. If they fail to resume operation in a short period of time, Libya's crude oil production will sharply reduce from about 1.2 million barrels / day to 72000 barrels / day. The quotation of rubber raw materials in Thailand has no obvious change compared with that before the festival. Therefore, according to the comprehensive price comparison of exchange rate, the overall import cost shows a slight downward trend with little change. The epidemic has no significant impact on the upstream production of rubber. The domestic production area is in the cut-off season, while the major foreign production areas, such as Thailand and Indonesia, have yet to have a large-scale spread of the epidemic. However, in recent days, the number of confirmed cases in Thailand has increased, and the trade with China has been partially affected. The Thai baht has seen a significant depreciation, from about 29.8 to 31.2 at the end of December. After the festival, the demand side of rubber will be impacted: road freight turnover will bear the brunt, and this year, some high-speed roads will be closed, and logistics freight will be affected.

The downstream construction is delayed to February 10, and the subsequent construction rate may also be affected (March and April are the peak season of tire production). General Administration of Customs: in December 2019, China imported 728000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex). The total rubber import in 2019 is 6.576 million tons, down 6.2% from 7.008 million tons in 2018. In terms of PTA and polyolefin units, chuanneng chemical's PTA unit with an annual output of 1 million tons was shut down on December 29 due to failure, and was temporarily restarted near the middle of February. Hainan Yisheng 2 million tons / year PTA plant maintenance plan was cancelled, the original plan of the plant maintenance by the end of February. According to the current situation of terminal weaving and textile and garment enterprises, it has become a foregone conclusion to postpone the start of construction. In previous years, workers began to return to the factory one after the eighth day of the first month, and the starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms slowly picked up until the 15th day of the first month. Some weaving bases responded to the government's call to postpone to return to work after the 15th day of the first month. Considering that some workers also have the willingness to return to the city to work according to the situation of the epidemic alleviation, compared with the previous years, the resumption of textile and weaving links was delayed at least one week.

Agricultural film: compared with industrial demand, agricultural demand is less affected and more rigid. In previous years, the construction of agricultural film enterprises started earlier, starting from the seventh day of the first month, and gradually returned to normal after the Lantern Festival. This year, agricultural film enterprises will basically start construction after the 15th of the first month. Downstream labor-intensive industries are delayed to return to work. The plastic daily use chemical industry corresponding to the injection molding and hollow downstream under the PE category, and the packaging industry corresponding to the linear downstream packaging film; the plastic daily use chemical industry corresponding to the drawing and injection molding downstream under the PP category, and the plastic woven bag packaging and printing industry downstream of the drawing are all labor-intensive industries, so the terminal demand corresponding to the PP will be more affected by the suppression, and the agricultural film demand of PE will be more affected It should be a rigid demand with relatively small impact. The weather of soybean and soybean meal in South America has little influence on the whole, and it is expected that the output in South America will be good.

The market is pessimistic about the progress of China's procurement, and soybeans fell sharply; the price of domestic soybean meal will be significantly pressured down in the short term, and may fluctuate at the bottom in the future, and the market will focus on the recovery of future demand in the medium and long term to drive up. The trend of oil market is weak, and CBOT soybean oil is dragged down by the decline of related oil. As of January 31, the soybean oil 03 contract closed at 29.89 cents / pound, down 6.54% on a weekly basis; the BMD palm oil in Malaysia was greatly affected by demand, and as of January 31, the palm oil 04 contract closed at 2599 ringgit / ton, down 9.19% on a weekly basis. The Spring Festival holiday has been extended, and the start-up of oil plants has been delayed. At present, the soybean meal inventory of oil plants is on the low side. In order to prevent and control the epidemic, the transportation is limited, and the stock of breeding terminals has been tightened, or the price of continuous meal has been boosted. However, with the sharp decline of soybeans, the weakening of cost support, and the concentration of pigs out of the market before the festival, the capacity has not yet recovered after the festival, the demand for soybean meal in pig feed is still low, and the continuous meal will continue to remain weak in the short term.